Sunday, 1 October 2017

Thundering Herd Consolation

A first losing weekend of the 2017 season for the NCAAF Small Road 'Dogs System but not a disaster as it was a relatively quiet weekend.

I'm still a little confused about how this simple system could ever be considered to be based on "Fundamental Analysis".
About all I know about the entrants is that Iowa is the only state with all vowels in its name, Marshall is famous for the 1970 plane crash that killed most of the football team, and Middle Tennessee is somewhere in the middle of Tennessee. 

I think James' confusion comes from the misunderstanding that fundamental analysis is based on public data. In my view, most fundamental analysis IS based on public data, which is why it's a waste of (often a lot of) time, and doesn't give anyone an edge. 

To gain an edge, private fundamental data is essential. Hence my answers to @statsbet's Q and A:
Can your home bettor/trader beat the market long term using statistics like you see on and other various websites some paid?
No. Such publicly available data, whether free or by subscription, is useless. Far more sophisticated and well-funded enterprises than an individual at home are competing in the markets, i.e. with you. They already have this data. They have already analysed it. As in the previous answer, if you assume that these professional enterprises are not donating their money to the market each day, i.e. they are net winners, how can you, sitting at home, seriously think that you can overcome this disadvantage over the long-term and make a profit?
Would you advise technical analysis or fundamental/statistical or both?
Technical analysis.
Unless you have access to private (insider) information, fundamental analysis is a waste of time. Others will always know more than you. Let all (private and publicly available) information hit the market, and then focus on a statistical analysis of the market’s estimate of probabilities. Try to understand the market sentiment behind the prices, and identify areas where the market may be vulnerable.
It looks like a quiet weekend for Technical Analysis' NFL Small Road 'Dogs System this weekend too, with just three likely selections.

Today is also the final day of the 2017 MLB regular season, with just the one T-Bone selection, which is a relief after a dreadful September for these selections. 

With the play-offs now imminent, perhaps it's a good time to dust off the Technical Analysis based UMPO System.
The low number of bets per season make for some wild ROI returns, so it's not for everyone.  


SportsPicksSystem said...

For UMPO, what is your criteria to consider a team to be the underdog?
Home: 1.924
Away: 1.971

Is away the underdog or just too close to call?

James said...

To clarify my definitions as per the book Betfair Trading Techniques...

Fundamental data is that which makes one team/competitor better than another, which can include public data such as win, draw, loss records etc. private data such as a player's current health or mindset, and even financial muscle data and use in transfer markets.

Technical data makes no consideration of teams and players and looks only at markets, prices and volume with no knowledge of to whom those figures are attached.

Hybrid strategies might calculate odds lines from fundamental data and traded optimally using technical data.