Friday, 5 January 2018

Big Six Draw Value

We can blame Joseph Buchdahl @12Xpert, but as I mentioned back in November in regard to League Two Aways:

The downside of the publicity is that the esteemed Joseph Buchdahl Esq. became involved, along with his small army of 5,000 followers, so the edge on these will now be gone. Fun and lucrative while it lasted though.
It does now seem almost certain that the League Two Aways System will show a significant loss for the first time since 2011-12.
After 309 matches this 2017-18 season, the system is down by 25.6%, with big losses in November and December.

I should probably blame @statsbet more than Joseph, as it is he who brought this now tarnished nugget to the latter's attention, or more crucially his 5,000 followers.

The latest, golden for now, nugget that statty is "drawing" the world's attention to, is the value in backing the Draw in the English Premier League. 

I wrote on this in my final post of 2017, and since then the profit on my simple system (backing the Draw in matches where neither team is odds-on) has since climbed to 20.83 points, an ROI of 23.1%.

It should be noted that blindly backing the Draw in this league this season is profitable, although with a reduced ROI of 8.5%. 

When asked by statty if Wednesday's Arsenal v Chelsea draw was value, @Soccermatics author David Sumpter wrote:
What 'these big matches' means is unclear, but the Draw is priced at 3.2 or higher in most (89%) EPL games.

Backing the Draw in these games would have you in profit by 5.34 points (ROI 2.7%).

If 'these big matches' refers to games between the Big 6 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur) then the ROI this season is 5.8%. (Only four non Big 6 teams have crashed the Top 6 domination since 2012).

Here are the numbers since the dawning of the Pinnacle Age, both for all Big 6 matches and for those where the Draw price was 3.2 (Implied Probability 0.3125) or greater:
David Sumpter's tweeted his thoughts on the Premier League Draw, writing:
I would say that any strategy that makes a profit over a whole season is worth following. 5 years for sure. The problem often is however that the return is very small and variance large. Making it not much ‘fun’.
Hopefully, further exposure about the Draw here on what has been described as "the world's number one sports trading blog" won't see the value being lost overnight, but with some big players involved in the Premier League these days, it won't last for ever.

While most individuals might not find betting on the Draw 'fun', their money should be swamped by that of the big players and sharp punters like readers of this blog. That this is not yet happening is a little strange. 

Just for fun, I looked at the "no-odds-on" Draw bet in lower leagues in England this season. 

Championship: Currently down 24.06 points from 199 selections
League One: Currently down 37.98 points from 214 selections
League Two: Currently down 58.00 points from 231 selections 

Only in the National League, curiously still referred to as the Conference at Football Data, is this profitable, with an ROI of 20.56%, +43.96 points.

For the record, I'm teasing @statsbet. He frequently DMs me to ask my opinion, and we were both on the Arsenal v Chelsea Draw this week, and both had a financial interest in Crystal Palace not losing to Southampton. Statty was on the Palace win, while I had a more cautious lay of the home team. After trading at 1.5 to be relegated, Crystal Palace are now looking more likely to qualify for Europe.   

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