Friday, 14 September 2018

Weighting Seasons

Another win for the Overs in last night's Cincinnati Bengals v Baltimore Ravens game makes it 5-0 in Divisional games this season, something of a surprise given the historical record in such games, especially when played on a Thursday:

While the new rule changes have led some to believe games will be higher scoring, I'm not so sure, but it's something to be aware of. 

There are another seven Divisional games this weekend. As I write this, small 'dogs on the road this weekend are the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Panthers, Giants and Dolphins, with the latter three playing in Divisional matches. Be aware though, that lines move.

Another thing to be aware of with these systems is that it is important to keep an open mind on what parameters you use for your selections. 

A case in point is the +2.5 line for NFL Road teams. Here are the data from 2002, a season chosen because this is when the current NFL format was first established:
As a result of last season's 4-6 record, backing qualifiers at the +2.5 points line now has a losing record overall, with a total loss of 0.17 points. 

However, not all seasons are equal. Most readers should agree that results from 2002 are less important than results from 2017, so I apply weights to the numbers. 

This shows that the +2.5 line is currently even more problematic. 

Over the last four seasons, the record is 15-21, and the weighted record comes out to 35-42. 

If you stake using fractional Kelly and use the weighted ROI percentage as your edge to calculate the recommended stake, then the recommended stake size on these selections is of course zero. At least for now. Keep tracking these results, and at some point they may again offer value.

Another thing about monitoring lines outside of what appears at one time to be the optimal range, is that new opportunities can show up.

Here are the weighted numbers for the +1 and +1.5 lines which led to two winners last weekend, the Redskins and the Bengals both winning straight up:
Bottom line is that while backing Small Road 'Dogs in the 2.5 to the 5.5 point range has been overall profitable since 2002, the basic system can be improved upon with a little effort. 

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