Sunday, 9 September 2018

Back On The Road

I mentioned the advantages of looking at US sports in my last post, and there were a record number of qualifiers for the College Football Small Road Dogs system yesterday, with 8 winners and 6 losers. This system has had just two losing seasons this millennium, both by less than two points, and with an ROI of 7.24% it is well worth following. 

The similar NFL version, although with different parameters, has its first qualifiers of the 2018 season today, with the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks the selections. The ROI in this sport is lower than in the College game, and be warned that last season was a loser:

If you stick to Divisional games for this system, the ROI since 2002 (when the league expanded to 32 teams) is over 8% - and there is one such qualifier (Chiefs) today.
 
In both College and the NFL, road teams receiving exactly a field goal are to be backed. In College games since 1996, these win 57.1% of games ATS, while in the NFL since 2002 the number is 55.9%. 

Contrast this with road teams receiving four points, where College is 50% and the NFL 48.5%.    

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