Thursday, 22 August 2019

Cornered Tigers Pounce

As most of you will have seen by now, the hottest favourite ever in an MLB game lost last night, just 10 days after losing as a -430 favourite.

The official database price on the Houston Astros last night was -470, but I saw it said that it touched -600 (1.167) at the MGM sportsbook in Las Vegas:

The move to -600 appears to have been driven by a fairly substantial bet at -575 (1.174)
I did caution against trying to buy money yesterday, but maybe not everyone reads this blog. 

The Astros never led last night, losing 1-2, so anyone following my Unders recommendation will be happy today. 

My other selection yesterday, the Washington Nationals, also had a comfortable (11-1) win at -150 (1.667), although 1.72 was available on the exchanges.

Having set a new record yesterday at -470, we don't have to wait long for a possible new record, with the same Houston Astros again currently listed as huge favourites at -500 to beat the Detroit Tigers in game four of their series, although there appears to be some reluctance (hardly surprising) to back at that price and it may well drift to around -440. 

Wherever it ends up, this is the fifth -400 or shorter line this month, and the third in four days, beating 2004's three in five days. Exciting times, unless you are an Astros fan perhaps:
Note the different prices quoted (above are from BetLabs), one of the constant challenges with multiple and dynamic markets, although not a big deal on outlier selections such as these that, on average, happen once or twice a season, or five times a month...  

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