Tuesday, 13 August 2019

Curiousities and Carryovers

The Houston Astros were the sole T-Bone qualifier last night, but the game was postponed due to rain, which means they are a qualifier today, but be careful. The Astros @ Chicago White Sox game is a double-header, so the qualifier is the first game (4:40 EDT) with Zack Greinke pitching, not the second game with Gerrit Cole on the mound. This second game will be a T-Bone selection in the unlikely event that the Astros lose game 1, but as we saw on Sunday, anything is possible.

The postponed game was also a basic overs selection, but with a quality starter, backing Overs is generally not the best idea.

The only bet yesterday ended up being the Overs in the Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians game and this squeaked in by one run scored in the bottom on the ninth, showing why you want that extra inning on your side.

I've mentioned the importance of having a logical rationale to systems, and one Tweet yesterday was this:

AL teams that have had six straight games of 6 or fewer hits have gone a perfect 9-0 since 2004. ACTIVE on the #Rangers tonight vs. #BlueJays.
My response was this:
The Texas Rangers lost 4-19.

Somewhat related, and there's a similar suggestion for a system today that suggests opposing teams who scored more than 15 runs in their previous game. 

The premise is correct in that the system is not based on the team performing poorly in the next game, but that it takes advantage of the public bias influenced by the recency effect, that the hot hitting will continue.

In database history, the record of opposing these big hitters is 164-167, not a huge sample, but profitable with an ROI of 3.8% on the Money Line.

When the opposition were the team on the wrong side of the high score in the same series, the ROI climbs to 4.5%, and when the team were embarrassed on the road, the ROI jumps to 12.2%, or 20.8% in night games. 

The Texas Rangers qualify today at around -129 (1.77). 

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