Saturday, 24 August 2019

Relatively High

While the Basic Unders System doesn't generate as many selections as its Basic Overs sibling, their ROIs this season are fairly close.

Unders is at +12.9% from 138 selections, while Overs is at +11.5% from 278 selections. 

Basic Overs is currently in a slump, seven losses from seven over the last four days, with a first losing month of the season looking highly probable. 

It's the 9.5 total that is causing the problem. 

I apply a similar strategy in baseball to that for the the NBA. When the total is (relatively) high, my expectation is that the public will be deterred from backing Overs, and Overs can thus offer value.
If you've looked into the idea of backing Overs in the MLB, you'll know that where to draw the line regarding what qualifies as a 'relatively high' total can be a tough call. 

Until this season, the 9.5 total was profitable, but markets tend to correct, if slowly. The average total in games when the road team is favorite is 9.1 this season, so 9.5 is no longer 'relatively high'. Compare with the average of 7.9 runs in 2014 and 2015. 

In 2016, the ROI on the 9.5 total Overs was 22%. In 2017 it dropped to 6.3% and in 2018 to 0.9%. The trend was clear, and after losses standing at -13.8% before the all-star break it was clear a change was needed. 

The basic Unders system, on the other hand, is running hot, with ten wins from the last eleven selections, the latest being the 14 inning game between the New York Mets and the Braves which ended 1-2 with 12 of the 14 scoreless.
College Football returns today, although Week One has no Power Five or Group of Five Conference games that look likely to qualify for the Small Road 'Dogs System that has performed so well this millennium with 18 years of winners exceeding losers. 

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