Tuesday, 23 June 2020

Look Away For Favourites

With another "Local Derby" draw this weekend on Merseyside, I thought I might share another observation, although I may live to regret this. 

The numbers below are from 2000 to the suspension of play this season, as I haven't updated my spreadsheets yet with this week's results, but the trend is clear.

Basically in close matches, i.e those where the teams' win probabilities are within 25% of each other, the value on the Draw is much higher when it is the Away side who are favourites, or when the two teams are priced exactly the same.

Likewise when the matches are "toss ups", i.e. where the win probabilities are within 10% of each other, there's a significant increase in ROI when the Home team is not favoured.

In other words, not all 10% or 25% differences are equal. Markets have biases as I have written previously, and it never hurts to dig a little deeper to see where the consequent inefficiencies offer value.
Looking ahead, and Thursday's match between Southampton and Arsenal is looking like a "toss-up" qualifier with the Away team slight favourites on Pinnacle, though interestingly slight underdogs on Betfair.
The Draw on Pinnacle is currently 3.54 which is great value in a "toss up" matches with only 23 previously this high in almost 20 seasons with an ROI of 82%. 

But don't go crazy. Prices will move before kick-off and even if this match remains a qualifier, when backing the Draw you will lose more than twice as often as you will win, even with value on your side, so these bets are not for everyone.

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