Saturday, 20 June 2020

Michigan Leans Blue

The US Presidential Election is three weeks closer (now 136 days away) than it was when I wrote this last month about the so-called "toss-up" states

In Florida, polls as of yesterday have Biden leading 49% - 46%. Clearly with 29 votes, this is a must win state for the Republicans, as if they lose here, the Democrats would need just one of the other swing states to push them over the 269 votes needed.

Pennsylvania has Biden well ahead by 49% - 41%, although the polling data here is eight days old, while Michigan and North Carolina have Biden ahead 49% - 43% and 46% - 44% respectively. Biden also leads in Arizona (47% - 43%) and Wisconsin (47% - 41%) which all means that in a fair election, anything close to evens for the winning party to be Democratic seems great value.
As of yesterday, the Cook Political Report (an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes US elections) updated its web site to reflect that Michigan, with its 16 Electoral College votes) is no longer a toss-up state, but has moved into the "leans Democratic". 
This means that with 248 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories, the Democrats would need only 23 of the available 86 (27%) electoral votes from the Toss Up column.

A win in Florida and it should all be over, and the latest polls there have Biden ahead by 50% - 43%, 51% - 40% and 50% - 40%. 

Hardly a surprise then that the odds on Joe Biden have dropped sharply in three weeks from 2.17 to 1.82.

For the Democrats to be the winning party they have dropped from from 1.96 to 1.7 and for the Popular Vote winner to be Biden from 1.34 to 1.2. 

Last Wednesday, @BradAllenNFL tweeted:
I'm starting to think Biden at 1.88 might be one of those Mayweather v McGregor once-in-a-lifetime type bets
He may not be 1.88 any more, but at 1.82 is still value in my opinion, and one reason why is summed up by the Ladbrokes Politics Twitter account.

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