Monday, 19 January 2009

Elo Ratings

Today there are just two English league games, and a chance to focus.

Liverpool v Everton: Liverpool (1.67) are rated at 1956, Everton (7.6) at 1427.

Yeovil Town v Leicester City: Yeovil Town (5.7) are rated at 394, Leicester City (1.76) at 761.

Clearly the favourites are Liverpool and Leicester City, but where do my ratings suggest the value is at? One of my big problems when pricing up matches, is calculating the odds of the draw. When I rate my NFL and NBA teams, I don't have this problem. There IS no draw.

My selection for today is Leicester City. I fancy the Liverpool v Everton game to be tight as derby games often are, so I shall leave that alone.

Update: Well, every dog has his day. Nice call, even if I do say so myself.


Anonymous said...

would you mind elaborating a little bit on the conversion of your rating system's points to odds?

Cassini said...

Sorry to confuse you - the odds quoted were from Betfair, and no relation to my ratings. My big problem is how to convert the ratings into odds.