Sunday, 18 January 2009

Stupid Football

That last second winner from Chelsea yesterday may have delighted my son, but it cost me close to £700, and it was quite a relief that I managed to end the day in profit (albeit by just £20.19).

Why do I continue to bet on football? Well, my last losing day on this sport was back on October 11th. After a steady succession of small winning days (median profit a whopping £5.39), the confidence starts coming back, and the memory of the last lightning stike begins to fade.

I really am rather disappointed in myself. I like football, and it is very frustrating that I can't consistently make money at it as I can other sports. I keep ratings of all the teams, and get results like top-rated Wycombe Wanderers (rating 453) losing at home to bottom-rated Grimsby Town (185). Elgin City drawing with Cowdenbeath! I ask you. Where's the logic? It's actually quite interesting re-rating the teams after every game, but it doesn't seem to be paving the road to riches for me yet.

For anyone who's interested, top-rated teams in each division are currently Manchester United(2237), Wolves (1246), Leicester City(761), Wycombe Wanderers(421), Burton Albion(339), Droylsden(167), AFC Wimbledon(153), Celtic(1423), St Johnstone(626), Ayr(369) and Dumbarton(236). The biggest surprise is Droylsden who languish in 14th place, but who have several games in hand. Like I said, this is a work in progress. Still not quite sure how to turn this effort into money!


Anonymous said...

Hi Cassini,
I know just how you feel. Sunday's are statistically by far my worst days, however today I managed to lose on West Ham under 2.5, Spurs, spurs over 2.5, Inter Milan, the Real Madrid match, Valencia (Betfair messed up on the suspension and I failed to get my price in on over 2.5 in that match also), Atletico Madrid and now after earlier heavily backing Ronnie O'Sullivan and at 7-5 to Mark Selby deciding to switch my green and red around onto Selby, Ronnie has decided to buck his ideas up - some times I wonder why I bother.

Cassini said...

Some days it seems nothing goes wrong, other days nothing goes right. Hang in there and good luck.

Anonymous said...

Cassini, if you dont mind me asking, did Chelsea's late goal cost you on the 1x2 market or on the 2.5 o/u market?

Also, the ratings you have next each selected team, are they the ELO rating for each and if so, what rating did you start each (of the selected) teams on?

Interested to grasp what "scope" applies to your ratings as I might have some useful info for you.

Cassini said...

I'd rather you didn't ask what market the late goal hurt me on since I am not supposed to be playing these markets anymore, but it was the O/U 2.5.

Yes, I use a modified Elo formula to rate the teams. I started tracking them this season and for the Prem gave an average of 1200 per team (ratings were based on last season's finishing positions) and moving down the league ladder started teams on 800 / 500 / 300 / 200 and 100 points.

Any info would be greatly appreciated.