Friday, 23 January 2009

Half-Time Draw

I was reading a system today called the Half-Time Draw Football Trader.

To summarise the poorly written and fluffed out 13 pages into a couple of lines, the ‘system’ is to back the draw at half-time when an in-play match is tied. The author states that the approximate odds will be around 3.0 (range 2.76 to 3.25) and that the bet should be layed off 10 to 15 minutes later after the price has dropped by a full point.

It certainly sounds easy enough, but there is a noticeable lack of supporting data to back up his claim. He also fails to specify any other qualifying rules as to the kind of in-play games to try this.

Essentially, for this system to be profitable, it needs a goal in less than 50% of matches (or in the event of a goal, for a subsequent ‘get-out-of-jail-free’ equalizer.)

Do 50% of matches which are level at half-time fail to produce a goal before the price drops by a point – or become drawn games later?

Time to start yet another spreadsheet unless anyone has data already to prove that this 'system' is worthless, as I am quite sure it is.

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