Saturday, 30 May 2009

In-Play Over

In-play football betting is a thing of the past for me. I can't do a thing right!

Take the FA Cup Final this afternoon: I fancy overs, but decide to wait until 10 minutes or so to get a feel for the game. First minute - a goal. Slightly annoyed, I wait the game out until 20' and just as I am preparing to back the overs, goal number two goes in.

Second half, and it appears the game is closing up, extra time is a possibility, and I see overs moving from 1.7 to 2.0 in about two minutes. What do I do? I decide to take a gamble by laying overs at 2.04. Literally 20 seconds later...

My football betting is profitable when I have punts, but downright unprofitable when I play in-running. Oh well, end of the season and next season the rule is no in-play football betting. My ratings have had a year to settle down, and fared well towards the end of the season.

May has been a good month until today. I finally managed to claw back April's disastrous loss and get into Premium Charge territory again (it was almost a pleasure to have to pay it again this week).

One of the ideas I was considering for reducing this tax was to have a punt at approximately evens each week, with the stake being the week's profit to that point. A loss would reduce the week's profit to zero, so there would be no Premium Charge. A win would double the week's profit, and the Premium Charge would be more than covered by the extra win. Assuming the odds are value, I should win as often as I lose.

However, assuming evens is value and an average weekly profit of £100,
I can either pay (all figures approximate) £20 for a weekly net profit of £80, or win nothing 50% of the time, but £160 (£200 - £40) every other week. My plan is flawed, but the extra losses would help in reducing my liability I guess.

At least the Bulls are looking good in the Super 14 as predicted here a couple of weeks back.


Anonymous said...


Im interested to hear that you're "punt" betting on football is profitable and your inplay football isnt, given that youve said on a number of occasions that you believe it to be a lot harder to find value before the "off/start" then compared to inplay!

By the way, I told you the ELO would come good after 30 games! :)


Cassini said...

Hi JPG - just to clarify, when I talk about it being easier to find value in-play, I am talking about in sports OTHER than football. Football is too popular. I prefer the less popular sports where opportunities can be found. As for the Elo ratings, I am rolling them forward into next season, and after a handful of games to settle down and adjust for new signings etc, hope to be in a position where they will be profitable. Watch this space!