Wednesday, 1 July 2009

Fortune And Misfortune Are Two Buckets In The Same Well

Thanks to Tommy Haas, Andy Roddick and Serena Williams my trading month is off to a good start even if my account remains in negative territory for the time being. It could well have been very nicely in profit, but value does not always mean big profits.

In a baseball game yesterday, I had made a big lay of the Texas Rangers at 1.05 in their game at home to the Los Angeles Angels. This is one of my strategies, and risking £125 to possibly win £2,500 is a strategy that works well in many sports. 

Anyway, to cut a long story short, the Angels ended up managing to tie the game in the ninth inning. Usually this leads to a big pay-day. Unfortunately, the market refused to budge by too much. In this scenario, I would expect the price on Texas to move out to 1.6 or so. They will still be favourites, with the bottom of the ninth still to come, but as outs are recorded, the price should move closer to 2.0. I backed back enough at 1.5 to ensure I was green-all-over, but was looking at just £50 on Texas versus £2,000 on the Angels. With two outs recorded, it was looking good, but sadly Texas hit a home run to win the game. No regrets at not taking bad value though. My bet was value, and betting with value will continue to be profitable in the long run. The poor value backers got lucky this time, but luck runs out. It's just frustrating to be unable to fully cash in on a value bet. Winning £50 is ok, but one can't help but feel disappointed!

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