Friday, 3 July 2009

We Are Not Amused


To the surprise of many, Andy Murray lost in the semi-final today. At 1.35 pre-game, against an experienced player, this was never value. I layed off my pre-tournament back of Murray one round too early, but I'm not complaining. As I have said before, in-play tennis betting just isn't for me, but I seem to be making more pre-game or pre-tournament bets these days. The Queen will be disappointed though.

I was reading the forum before the game, and an astonishing number of people felt that 1.35 was huge value, and that Roddick had no chance in reply to someone who suggested 1.35 was a value lay. Good for the original poster. Funny how all the 'experts' go very quiet when they are shown to be wrong.

Speaking of value, the New York Yankees were 1.34 pre-game yesterday, in a game where the best team wins approximately 60% of their games over a season. Value? Not for me, and it made me a nice profit when the Yankees lost the game to the Seattle Mariners. Today they play the Toronto Blue Jays and pre-game were 1.54. Again, not value in my opinion. Currently the game is tied after four innings, and could go either way. I'm on the value side of this one whatever happens.

Manchester United have signed Michael Owen! Now there's a surprise. Not that he left Newcastle, but that Manchester United wanted him. A great player in his uninjured prime, but nothing special these days.

Another surprise transfer is Ron Artest's move to the Lakers. Although he and Kobe Bryant had their issues during the play-offs, I suspect that off-court there is a mutual respect and he should help the Lakers improve with his all-round game. Trevor Ariza moves the other way in the deal. The early signs are that Lakers are again worth a pre-season back, although the prices aren't firmed up yet on Betfair, and BETDAQ (where thes punts have to be made these days) haven't even bothered to put the market up yet.

5 comments:

Dremeber said...

I'm glad that I went for Roddick. His serve was going super last week and, if he wants to admit it or not, the pressure on Murray was inmense!

Cassini said...

Agreed. When the Queen says she's coming to the final, that is some pressure.

Rob The Builder said...

Stuck £20 on Murray this morning. I never had any conviction he'd win, I think it was my way of adding my support, a sort of alternative to buying a flag to wave. I did the same following England in the last World Cup (soccer). I suppose the more cynical (or smarter) would bet against the team they're supporting, to give an emotional win/lose.

Cassini said...

Rob - the value on these occasions is definitely with laying the fan favourite. Supply and demand forces the prices too low. Nothing wrong with being a fun gambler on these events (for the social experience), but for the business gambler the value is always in opposing England / Henman / Murray whoever. You may have less friends, but you'll have more cash!

strugar said...

...and when you have more cash, you'll again have more friends! ;-)