Monday, 5 October 2009

'Elo Again

Just a quick post to say that the draw looks good for tonight's Aston Villa v Manchester City game, but I am conservatively laying City at 2.71. Villa are slightly better on form and overall rating, whereas Manchester City are better on recent in-game performances.

Update: A very entertaining game with the result, for once, as predicted. Always nice to finish the round on a high, even if I am second-guessing myself for not backing the draw outright!

Lay Manchester City (2.71) @ Aston Villa W 58.48

09-10 Totals - Stake: 2200 P/L: 246.61 (+11.21%)

I'm also in the process of refining my Elo ratings calculation after deciding it was too simple and needs a little tweaking. The problem was that years ago I used the more basic method before computers and spreadsheets (yes, I'm old) and I followed this same method when I restarted the exercise last season, but I can do better with the technology available today. Under the old method, a 1-0 win was treated the same as a 5-0 win, and this can't be right.

Another bad day in the NFL yesterday, and down again for the season. My strategy of laying short prices didn't pay off in the late game as the Chargers went 0-28 down to the Steelers before making a too little, too late comeback.

On the plus side, my numbers for baseball this season are a new high for me, and the play-offs start tomorrow. Elo doesn't work too well with baseball.

I'm also planning to use the new and improved Elo rating system for ice-hockey betting this season, but so much to do. The season has started and I am behind schedule. The NBA also starts soon with pre-season games going on right now, while the women's version is currently winding up - another sport that has set new highs for me this season.

Look for momentum swings in the women's game. A 10 point lead evaporates fast and there is often money backing the pre-game favourite too short later on in a close game. The way I look at it is that if the starting prices are 1.5 and 3.0 but the teams are close after say three quarters, those SPs are no longer relevant. (Be aware that there are things like foul trouble, or players injured that faactor in). If a game goes into overtime, then pretty much those teams are 50/50.

1 comment:

Cran said...

When laying short prices NFL only lay the non-favourites (when their odds come down in play) and you should get a good return.