Monday, 12 October 2009

A Whale Tale

The end of a roller-coaster week with 5 of the last 8 days of trading seeing a four-figure swing one way or the other. Fortunately, the good days now lead the bad days 3-2 and the bank is once more at a new high.

An interesting end to the New York Yankees - Minnesota Twins play-off baseball game - a whale made his (or possibly her) appearance in the ninth inning. At one point there was something like £330,000 wanting to back the Yankees at 1.01 in the 9th inning, when they were up 4-1 with the bases loaded and one out. In the end, they didn't add on and the money shifted to 1.02 for the bottom of the 9th.

I was sorely tempted, and took £25k of it, backing it back at (mostly) 1.04 for a very quick £500 (almost) when the Twins lead-off batter reached base. I was pretty sure I wouldn't have been able to back back the entire £330k had I taken it, but that would have been a very nice little earner in a more liquid market. (Not as nice as the Twins going on to win, but mustn't be greedy).

One of the problems I have encountered in the past is that of unloading large amounts into illiquid markets. Time is often not your friend, and it is very frustrating to take a position and have it move in your favour, but then be unable to lock in profits. It's especially frustrating when the event swings back against you, and you are still holding the now unfavourable position.

With the generally accepted rule that one shouldn't risk more than approximately 2% on any single bet, Mr Billy Big Bollocks must have a bank of some £16 million. I may have to revise some of my targets. I feel so inadequate.


John said...

Are some Betfair accounts exempt from the maximum exposure limit?

Mark Iverson said...

2% exposure on a single bet....surely that's punting not trading Roberto?

Do you stick to these limits? would be interested to know.

All the best and keep up the good work with the blog - it's one of the best out there.


Cassini said...

John - you can call Betfair and get the default exposure limit increased.

Mark - when you're backing at 1.01, how much trading can you really do? OK, when he moved it to 1.02 you may have a point... Still a heck of a lot to risk.

Mark Iverson said...

For odds in the range of 1.01 to 1.50 I'm happy to put up 15% of my bank if the market has enough liquidity and my feelings match.

This sounds a lot but it's calculated and I watch movements closely. A couple of ticks can be very rewarding with those stakes.

All the best mate.


Cassini said...

Mark - as you say, a couple of ticks at short odds can be quite lucrative, but I'm usually laying then backing back rather than backing first. As you well know, you can lay £10,000 @ 1.05 and each tick is worth £100. I like those trades!