Friday, 2 October 2009

Letting Go

A lot of different things factor into my calculations for where value lies in my football betting, but there are some things I don't bother with, because I just don't see how they are anything other than a curiosity. I was reading Pete Nordsted's blog earlier, and in his Crystal Palace v Blackpool write-up he mentions, among other things, the following:

Three of the last four meetings between these two have ended in a draw.

Palace have failed to score in their last two home matches against Blackpool.

Blackpool are unbeaten in their last three away trips to face Palace.

Now if these aforementioned matches had all taken place in September, then yes, I would consider them highly relevant, but the five meetings referenced go back to April 1978! Is the result of a match played more than 30 years ago really relevant?

But why stop at "Blackpool are unbeaten in their last three away trips to face Palace"? 

According to my records, Blackpool are actually unbeaten in their last FOUR trips to Palace, and haven't lost there since Wednesday 2nd September 1970, a match that I was forced to miss by my Mum because I had school next day, and I'm still a little upset about it.

Anyway, not having a go at Pete, (plenty of others include this information too), just at the relevance of factoring in games played more than a few weeks ago. Blackpool certainly do seem to be a bogey side for Palace if you believe this stuff is relevant though, having lost just one of their last 12 league games against Palace.

For those who don't know, Pete has a book coming out this month called Mastering Betfair, and you can link to his blog on the right for more details. 

He was given a rather torrid time on the Betfair Forum earlier this week after linking to the video on his web page, but that is nothing new since the anonymity the forum offers seems to bring out the worst in people, many of whom are probably a little jealous. 

I have collaborated with Pete in the past on analysing some price movement charts, and he seems to me to be a perfectly genuine and intelligent guy. 

My Mum, (same Mum who stopped me going to Palace's last home victory over Blackpool), used to say that if you can't say something nice about someone, don't say anything at all. Maybe that's why I am such a quiet chap?

Anyway, I shall be ordering the book myself, because although I am not expecting a magic system that will allow me to win millions in the next year, reading this kind of book does at the very least give you ideas that you can perhaps mould to suit your individual style of investing, and it's always interesting to read about how other people are thinking.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Agree that previous meetings between teams from previous seasons is irrelevant especially as the players will also be totally different!