Friday, 23 October 2009

Angels v Yankees - Game 5

Tonight's match odds for the baseball are 2.0 New York Yankees, 1.99 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Fair enough, but when we look at the handicap prices, the Yankees -1.5 are 2.6, the Angels -1.5 are 2.82. One would expect a little more parity here, although being the home team (and batting last) does slightly increase the chances of a 1 run win.

Last night I took the Phillies giving 1.5 runs to beat the Dodgers because they were available at 2.52, whereas just to win they were about 1.73. That seemed to me to be a generous price given that the Phillies would want to win at home and avoid a trip to California, but I suspect that two one run games on Monday may have unduly influenced the price on the handicap.

Tonight I'm not so sure. The Yankees can afford to drop the game, with two more back in New York, but then again, the Angels may be subconsciously resigned to defeat in the series (they trail 1-3). The Yankees are my pick for a small punt, giving 1.5, but I wish they were available at the 2.82 rather than 2.6! I'll be trading this game and hoping for a few flip-flops.

In the ten minutes or so that it took to write this post, the Yankees have gone out to 2.04, (-1.5 2.66) and the Angels are in to 1.95 (-1.5 still 2.82).

Update: Well, I got my flip-flops. Angels up by 4 early, and layed them at 1.06 for a tidy sum. (Why people back at these prices with a third of the game still to play is really quite incredible). Yankees came back to lead 6-4, layed it off to go Green-All-Over, and my best baseball trading result ever. Best win of the year too! Call me Mr. Happy.

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