Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Twins v Yankees

A bit of a roller-coaster the past few days. Three four-figure wins or losses in the past four days, with losses ahead 2-1 unfortunately. Laying the leader worked yesterday in the Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins game allowing me to lock in a healthy profit, but the same strategy failed today in the Colorado Rockies v Philadelphia Phillies game. The New York Yankees are about to start against the Minnesota Twins and are an astonishing 1.29 to win.

This is a team that won 63% of its regular season games, playing against a team that won 53%, yet NEw York have an implied probability of 77.5%. Yes, Minnesota played last night, and the Yankees have CC Sabathia pitching, but the value is on the Twins. I'm not sure I saw a team priced this low during the entire regular season.

Some say that fatigue will be a problem for Minnesota, but last night's game finished before 9pm local time and New York is hardly a long way from Minnesota. They travel further than that during the regular season. Anyway, pre-game I have laid a hefty chunk at 1.29. Although I expect the Yankees to win this, I'm hoping to see that 1.29 move out at some point. Top of the first would be nice!

Update: First batter on 2nd base, and 1.4 matched... :)
3rd inning: Twins take a 2-0 lead, Yankees at 2.0 now


Anonymous said...


I had no opinion over whether the Yankees were value to lay (or back) at 1.29 but I would say that the Yankees winning percentage is more impressive over the Twins then it first appears as the difference in fixture list is quite distinct in MLB (apologies if you're already aware of this.)

Sounds like you got nice trade in regardless, especially as the Yankees went on to win :)


Cassini said...

Yes, with the Red Sox and Rays in their division, the Yankees do have the tougher schedule but 1.29 pre-game in baseball is very short. One of my better recent trades anyway!