Saturday, 19 February 2011

Shoot Out Logic

I got involved in the Chelsea v Everton game this afternoon, when it went to the penalty shoot-out. I've not got any stats on this, but logic tells me that penalties are close to a 50/50 shot (unless it's England, in which case you can bet the house on the opposition!) so I had a lay of Chelsea at 1.82 with the view that it was value and even if it lost, it was a Premium Charge reducer! It wasn't looking good for a while, but Ashley Cole's body language when placing the ball was quite revealing, and it was no surprise when he missed. I did lay off at 1.16 - was it value to do so? Not sure to be honest, but it was a situation where I paid my insurance premium and to heck with it.

Easy to say after the fact, but Birmingham City and Stoke City at home to opposition from two divisions lower, really did look good value at 1.7+. The only concern with these matches is whether the class teams are 'up for it', but neither club have had too many days at Wembley in their history, are relatively safe in the Premier League, and I felt they were value to make progress. One of the concerns about West Ham on Monday is that they are not anywhere near safe in the Premier League, and may not be fully focused, hence the 'apparently' generous price of 2.04.

My weak draw picks are 1 from 2 so far today. The bad news was Bologna hitting a 90' winner, but not too bad as this was a welcome winner for Football Elite. The good was Valenciennes who came from 0-2 down at Caen to score in the 80' and 88' minutes to give me a winner at 3.35. Real Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid still to come.

A nice dip into League Two again for Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster finding 2 winners from 3 picks, and two for two for Football Elite with Hannover joining Bologna in the win column.


Mets said...

Hi Cassini,

I know it's late but you've lost me in the first paragraph! You laid Chelsea at 1.82 and laid off at 1.16? How did that work?

And did you really look at the bet as a "Premium Charge reducer", or were you being tongue-in-cheek?

I'm confused!

Cassini said...

I layed Chelsea at 1.82, and layed Everton at 1.16 before the final kick - sorry to be confusing. The PC reference was semi-serious. Basically they are bets where the value is slight, and which over time should break even with the real value being that the commission on losing bets reduces the PC.

Paul Vinca said...

Hi...I have a question. If i trade at match odds before game starts, the big traders figure that I placed 1k? They will go in the opposite direction of what I buyed? Please answer :(

Mets said...

I'm with you on the first point.

I think you've got a better handle on the PC than me because I don't understand the second point really. Perhaps you could elaborate in one of your posts when you get the chance?


Anonymous said...

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Great blog. Any chance you could do a link swap with my blog?



Mug said...

tonight the same logic we meet in NBA all star game