Friday, 4 February 2011

Weekend Value

Something a little different this week, in addition to the usual draw and value picks, and that is using my Elo based ratings / Poisson system to look at the Under 2.5 goal markets in the EPL for value. The Unders looks value in the games at Aston Villa (1.8), Stoke City (1.7), Everton (2.5), Tottenham Hotspur (2.1) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (2.2) while the games at Manchester City (1.74), Newcastle United (1.99), Wigan Athletic (2.34) and West Ham United (2.14) look value for Over 2.5 goals. The Chelsea v Liverpool game is priced exactly as I have it.

I have Wigan Athletic as value to win at 2.64, although they also show up as a weak draw possibility, so a lay of Blackburn Rovers at 3.0 will be my play here.

Not many strong draws again this week, Nuremberg v Bayer Leverkusen, Auxerre v Lille and Almeria v Espanyol are the three.

I have Brest priced at 1.85 v Nancy, and 2.22 looks a generous price.

In Serie A, Udinese also look too short at 1.7 v Sampdoria, as do Parma at 2.52 v Fiorentina and Internazionale (2.02) v AS Roma.

In Spain, Osasuna at 2.16 v Real Mallorca and Real Zaragoza (2.14) v Racing Santander look good.

After Manchester City gave me my first losing away pick in midweek, I'm looking to the other Manchester side to get them back on track with a win at 1.47 at Wolves.

I thought it might be interesting to look at Mark Iverson's comments regarding some of the upcoming games, and then throw in my thoughts. Mark's comments in bold.

Stoke v Sunderland: According to my form table Stoke are the worst team in the Premiership at the moment, so I was surprised to see them such strong favourites for this one. Sunderland will miss Darren Bent but in my opinion there's still value to be had in opposing the home team. Conclusion: Lay Stoke @ 2.16

I have Stoke priced much higher too (2.46), and 2.16 is a lay for me also.

Everton v Blackpool: Everton's last 4 game average is much better but is their short priced justified? They still haven't got a prolific goal scorer and Blackpool are my 8th best performing away side in the league. Conclusion: Back Draw @ 4.80

Everton are too short for me, and a lay at 1.49.

Man City v WBA: WBA are shading the 4 game average and it's pretty close on the home/away ratings. Man City have the better players on paper but the Baggies could nick something out of this at a big price. Conclusion: Back Draw @ 4.80

Manchester City are value here for me, as short as they are. I have them at 1.27, and at 1.45, that's value.

Newcastle v Arsenal: The big teams are starting to up their game at the right time and Arsenal have been very consistent of late. Newcastle's performances have started to tail off over the last 4 games and without Andy Carroll I can't see them matching the Gunners firepower. Conclusion: Back Arsenal @ 1.70

I'm looking at laying Arsenal at this price.

Tottenham v Bolton: Bolton are another team struggling and their win against Wolves midweek could flatter to deceive. A performance in the '20's' from Spurs should be enough to see them off. Conclusion: Back Tottenham @ 1.63

Tottenham value for me too here. I have them as 1.36, so 1.66 (which is now available) looks good.


Mark Iverson said...

So I guess between us we're laying Stoke and Everton and backing Spurs.

Here's to a good weekend!


Simon Davis said...

Tottenham at 1.36 sounds very short given Tottenham have only won about half of their home games all season and Bolton are no mugs...