Monday, 28 February 2011

Always One

I'm not sure that the BBC meant the above comment to be taken literally, but the Academy Awards are a good opportunity to earn some Premium Charge credits, if not to win a huge amount. Upsets are relatively rare, and because many films are represented in multiple categories, you can often glean some insight into what films are being favoured early on. For example, when the Sound Mixing award goes to Inception, and this film is a leading contender in the Sound Editing category, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that as form goes, this is as reliable as it gets. 

Similarly, when The King's Speech Director Tom Hooper wins Best Director as the second favourite, the price of The King's Speech (backed in November) for Best Picture is likely to shorten. It dropped from about 1.35 to 1.18 on the 'news', a link I mentioned after last year's awards. Colin Firth won Leading Actor, and even at 1.02 managed to bring the price on Best Picture down to 1.1. 

It's not that easy of course, but the chances are good that you can at worst break even and get those all important losers on your side for the PC. When all was said and done, I showed a net loss of £12.38 (thanks to a £681 loss on True Grit in the Cinematography category - note to self "you know nothing about Cinematography") - but the boost to the PC Total Charges means this was a good loss. There's always one shocker! It was Sound Editing a couple of years ago.

One of the things I like about this style of betting is that the events come thick and fast, and there is little time for self-pity after a loss because the next category is right there. Contrast the above loss on Cinematography with a similar loss on football, and the latter would discombobulate me for days.

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