A couple of comments on the last couple of posts to address. Emp is suicidal after failing to include West Bromwich Albion to win at Manchester United this afternoon, writing:
And I now feel like killing myself- Forgot to mention my last pick WBA to win against United, and they lead with 20 mins to go......Indeed, they did, and that's how it stayed. I mentioned yesterday how your mind sees an event differently depending on where your money is, an similarly I'll bet there was part of Emp wishing that Manchester United would score. Anyone following a system will know that on occasion, it is simply not possible to get the bet placed. If the selection wins, it's annoying because you missed out. If the selection loses, you breathe a sigh of relief and thank fortune for getting the loser out of the way at no cost. This is understandable, but if your system has a positive edge, (and if it doesn't, why are you following it?), over time missing out on bets will cost you whatever the ROI is.
Anonymous was unclear on the selections listed.
Are those all home wins, draws away wins?When the selection is listed as Braintree Town v Alfreton for example, the selection is Braintree Town, with the versus Alfreton added for clarification. In other words, the selection is the team first mentioned unless specified otherwise.
I get the Swindon Town @ bit but the others aren't clear
The Football Analyst had three winners from twelve selections, but until the prices are available I won't know whether these would have been profitable to follow or not. I'll summarise after the weekend is over. One person who did have West Bromwich Albion to win is Webbo, a result that will certainly help his numbers.
Fascinating..just what I have been waiting for...you have 'Selection' at 1.83 whereas Ian at FTS has them at 2.69! and has them as a lay bet at 1.78 accordingly.
I have queried his ratings before on individual ratings that seem blatantly wrong but he won't have it.
In my opinion, the only way that you can make the statement that something is value is to price it up yourself, and be able to support your opinion with data. If you are consistently wrong, then you need to revisit your spreadsheet / model and make some changes. Ultimately all prices come down to the goal expectancies - if your expectation of goals is consistently too high for example, then you need to see why and fix it. Maybe it is too high for some leagues and not for others. Again, keeping records is essential.
For example, for tomorrow's Stoke City v Norwich City match, I have the following:
H: 2.11 D: 3.56 A: 4.07 U: 1.85 O: 2.18
There's no right or wrong approach - just whatever works for you. I lean towards objectivity and an emphasis on data, but the weakness here is that it doesn't account for 'soft' issues such as changes in manager or injuries or suspensions etc. Others lean towards studying line ups and a detailed knowledge of their league with merely a nod towards data. The overall total from the FTL shows how difficult it is to get ahead in football betting, and how people approach solving this puzzle is interesting.