I had an email from Tony, who wrote:
It's always interesting to see your line on a game.
I'm assuming this comes from your ELO methods and certainly picks up on the fact Everton now haven't conceded a home league goal in 636 minutes.
My own line, which is 'not active' as its based on insufficient games this season has Everton at 1.77 and the under/over at 2.08/1.93
It made me think you might see value in the both teams to score market.
My line for that is 1.93 which is where the market is - your model has a higher Everton likely score so your chances of Newcastle being zero must be higher.First of all, to clarify - it is Elo, not ELO. Elo is not an initialism. Elo ratings are named after Arpad Elo, a chess master who come up with the basic idea for the United States Chess Federation to improve upon the Harkness rating system they formerly employed.
Skeeve maintains his first place, but worth mentioning is the bad luck he has had with his official double bets, having had six all so far come up empty, or rather come up with one winner and one loser. If your double is going to lose, at least the selections could have the decency of both losing or both winning!In the long run, it makes no difference if you back selections in singles or doubles. Two selections can both win, both lose, or win one and lose the other. On a coin toss, you will win 3 units one time in four, and lose one unit the other three times and thus break even. You might as well just back them in singles so far as I am concerned, and doing just that, Skeeve would be up by approximately 1.57 points rather than down by 7.81. I say approximately because I use the Pinnacle closing prices while the Official bets are recorded earlier by Skeeve. While such a discrepancy is unlikely to last, (a couple of doubles coming in will soon reduce that difference), I'm not sure the irritation of one winner / one loser splits is a price worth paying for the rarer longer priced winning double. Again, it's all down to risk tolerance. If you can detach yourself from the short-term and see the big picture, then it makes no difference as I said, but if you prefer a smoother ride, then singles are the way to go.