Saturday, 8 November 2014

Skill v Luck

Ozz stopped by, to ask:

Hi Cassini,
Could you please clarify your walk-over logic and justification:
On one hand we have:
"No one should, in my opinion, EVER be forced to make selections or penalised for not doing so."
On the other hand the very same FTL has the rule:
"Entries must make at least 76 selections to be eligible for prizes"
So if someone makes 65 selections and is the clear leader, he or she still would not get a penny i.e. will be penalised for not "forcing" further 11 selection.
Or if we follow the "£0 is a benchmark" and your cup walk over logic, even 0 selections should be absolutely acceptable.
The intent behind imposing a minimum number of selections is essentially to ensure that the competition is a test of (relatively) long-term skill rather than of short-term luck.

Opening up the option of accumulators brought with it an (admittedly small) increase in the possibility that one selection would put an entrant handsomely into profit, and without a minimum number of selections to make, the lucky entrant would be in a position where he could take the rest of the season off. Win the lottery, and never buy another ticket in other words.

A double at the end of August on a Stoke City win at Manchester City and a Manchester United draw the same day would have netted a significant gain of 74 points for example.

It seemed reasonable to assume that anyone entering a tipster competition felt that over a season they would be able to find value in 76 matches (out of 22 leagues, and ~8,000 of matches) and that including this requirement in the rules would not be seen as 'forcing' anyone to make a selection.

OverGoalify is currently behind schedule on his selection count, and Daily 25 is distracted by Daddy Duties, but other than those two it's only "Second-half" Skeeve who may struggle to reach the 76 selections, specialising as he does in the non-league Conference.   

At the other end of the spectrum is Mortimer, who managed to find no less than 81 selections in just one weekend back in September.

A completely unrelated comment was also received from Marc Owen Banks who wrote:
Good to see I am not alone in being the only Portsmouth fan in the FTL league, although my position at present is relatively reflective of the fortune of my beloved club of recent seasons!
Indeed, quite a remarkable coincidence that a club like Portsmouth would be supported by two members of the FTL! I know Crystal Palace are well represented in the FTL with four entries, but since they are all mine, that doesn't really count. Ian Erskine is a Tottenham Hotspur fan, Drawmaster (Peter Nordsted) is Arsenal, TFA is Dundee I think, but it would be interesting to know who everyone else follows.

1 comment:

fairfranco said...

Fairfranco supports Everton, I wish they were faring as well as I am.