It's been a tough start to my Spring Break. The weather may be sunny and warm (in the 20Cs) but my mood is anything but.
I think there is a correct number. It's the +0.5 Pinnacle handicap. That is backable in the real world.
I just don't see the point in showcasing impossibilities. You don't need to use a special formula, just the +0.5 handicap odds.
I just don't see the point of applying artificial formulae when real world odds are available to do the job.The problem is that real world odds are not (to the best of my knowledge) available anywhere. The point of an artificial formula is to allow entrants who like the Lay option to be able to join in the FTL. For some, having a formula to allow Lay bets was a pre-requisite for entering.
Your Bundeslayga also appears to use some sort of formula (the same one?). This is a subscription service. Results for 13/14 are quoted as 4.34% from 96 selections. But applying real world prices (I've assumed a Pinnacle's typical Bundesliga Asian handicap market would be a shade over 1.02 margin) I get a yield of 2.1%.The formula is the same - I run the FTL and track the Bundeslayga. The Bundeslayga is not a subscription service. It is a (now) well known 'system' first identified and written about in this blog in 2010. It's been mentioned many times since, and it's a great Premium Charge mitigation system which shouldn't continue to be profitable year after year, but somehow is. There is no model generating the selections, although I have started looking at adding a filter with the goal of improving results, and while I do include the selections and update the results as part of the XX Draws / latterly Cassini service, no one (at least no one in their right mind) pays for Bundeslayga selections since all they need to do is look for Home, odds-on favourites in the Bundesliga. No one buys a system that has already been given away. The results from the individual 'Cassini' systems are also clearly broken down, week by week and by season to date. Any subscriber can attest to that.
I do document the Bundeslayga selections and results because I bet on these matches myself, I noticed the opportunity, and I'm interested in seeing how long it will keep giving.
It's a freebie and I have no idea if anyone (subscribers or others) bets on these or not. My members are incredibly quiet, which is usually a good sign. People join the service for the XX Draw selections which have been around almost as long as I have, starting in 2010 with the 'strong draw' idea.
As I showed in my screenshots from last weekend's actual bets, (and what could be more real world than these?) for the Bundeslayga an average of 0.025 has been close to real world experience, which is why that formula was chosen. (I used to use +0.04 and found that was shorting my results). [I admit here that I have no if this average is reasonably realistic for Lays in other leagues]. Here they are again:
The four differences were 0, +0.1, +0.4 and +0.5, which (purely by chance) averages out at... +0.25. The number was based on empirical evidence rather than plucked out of the sky. I suppose I should include the 50% Super Premium Charge too. Joseph continues:
You just set yourself up for criticism that you are deliberately trying to inflate your returns (even if that is not what you are doing), which is why I've ended up commenting here.
You should probably just take lays out of the FTL altogether, it will save you a load of griefA 'load' of grief? One person has complained, although out of 28, that's a high percentage I guess! I'm not even sure why the complainant complained since they are not impartial to using the Lay option themselves.
For official recording of the Bundeslayga, if you can't get the price from Betfair that the game goes off at KO, then maybe ask your members what price they took and take an average and assume 5% comm.
Or maybe proof to the SBC and get them to do it!
ps read your comments and hope you do continue this, I appreciate the amount of work (I was a mod on OLBG for many years and scored a number of comps on there, took huge amount of time and often wondered why I bothered!) but some people really do appreciate it and I'm in that category so thanks very much for all the hard work
hope I can carry on my decent spell and if I manage to win anything I will hopefully be able to donate some back to next season's pot
anyway, good luck to you and others this w/end and I'm very wary of the pommie underdog lol
Hard to keep updating the ratings at the moment if I'm honest but I've been here a few times before. No doubt we're due an upturn again. If the other main ratings services were coining it in at the moment, I'd be seriously worried about my ratings. From what I'm seeing from blogs and via emails, the other ratings services are having an identical run to TFA. Not much good for anyone following all of us in a portfolio unfortunately but it shows it's a wider issue here than just my ratings. It's always hard to explain losing runs like this and I'm not sure anyone can.
As for the question of where are the draws going, and in support of my “diminishing home advantage at the top level” theory, the answer is that they are almost all becoming Away wins.
Of the 63 Draws ‘lost’ this (2013-14) season (based on 9 year averages because Serie A changed increased its membership in 2004-05), only one of them became a Home win, while a massive, and almost unbelievable, 62 (98.4%) became Away wins.
As Danny suggested a few weeks ago, Jamie also, not unreasonably, suggests that the Cassini Value Selections may have been beneficiaries of the draw drought. I accepted this possibility at the time, (obviously fewer draws means more homes and aways) but having looked at the numbers, since these value selections are almost always home selections in the 2.0 to 2.6 price range, it is obvious that if they have benefited at all from the dearth of draws, it is only by the minutest of margins.
The fact is that this season, anyone selecting anything other than away teams, would have struggled to meet expectations. The decline in draws is only one piece of the puzzle. The other side of this is why the Away win numbers are so high this season?
For those who like numbers, here are the 9-year averages across Europe, followed by 2013-14's results:With still a little over 25% of the season to go, (818 played) the Homes, Draws and Aways are on course for the following totals:
Away wins were at record (10 year) highs in England, France, Italy and Spain. Only Germany failed to set a new high, although they were still 8 wins above their 10-year average of 89.
The recurrence of 818 is a coincidence. Homes are down again (spectacularly in Serie A), Draws are returning to their long-term average, and Aways are down on last season's high, but continue to push the average higher each season.
It's Happy Birthday blog today, in case any of you missed it. Seven years, 1960 posts, 3463 comments, and over a million page views. I must be doing something right, even if the last year has been rather dominated by FTL updates. Apart from the time it takes, one other downside of running the FTL is that time that might have been spent on general blog posts is now taken up with posts on the FTL. While this may be fascinating to the 28 entrants, I’m told by friends that it doesn’t make for a particularly riveting read for the vast majority of viewers.
Although I've not used them for many years, at one time I did have funds invested with WBX )World Bet Exchange) and they featured in the banner for this blog. This week saw their demise however,
A note from the CEO, Malcolm Gray:
To our loyal members and affiliates,
I have always taken a long view with WBX and believed that we'd become a genuine alternative to Betfair on the strengths of our great platform and commitment to putting every exchange player back in control. Unfortunately the business strategy is no longer viable due to the rising costs of regulatory compliance and levies in the United Kingdom, along with the increasingly prohibitive stance of various betting jurisdictions.
Though I am of course disappointed that WBX is closing, I am proud of my team and the fairness in which the exchange has operated for almost 10 years.
Please rest assured that WBX will continue to service its Members and affiliates in the same spirit during the wind-down period.
Thank you for your support.And finally get well soon wishes to Football Investor Stewboss.
I am currently taking a break from the service as I have been certified unfit to work by a doctor. I hope to return on the 24th March and the next update will be 26th March.Stew's ailment doesn't sound too serious fortunately, but it explains his inactivity this weekend.
Sorry for any inconvenience caused.