Threads on the Betfair and Blogabet Forums made me realise that some of the the ROI percentages in the FTL are slightly inflated.
I have a faint recollection of this topic coming up early in the season, with the infamous Jonny commenting that:
When ROI is calculated by betting syndicates it is normal practice to exclude void betsThis is correct in my opinion, but bets resulting in a Push are not the same as Void bets.
When a bet is a push, that does not mean that money was not risked – it only means that one gets the stake back after the bet is decided because the match ended in a certain way. It means that this amount of money has 0% yield (or interest) between the time of betting and the time when the stake is returned (it is not available to be invested elsewhere).The fact that money was at risk is key, and is why Push outcomes should be included in the ROI percentages. When a match is Void, for example due to a postponement, the money was never at risk. Bets on the outcome of an event are conditional upon the event actually taking place!
The next update of the FTL will therefore incorporate this small change. Only seven of the 33 entrants have Push outcomes (Draw No Bet) and the highest percentage is Randolph's, who has just over 10% of his selections ending this way. His ROI% before this weekend was 8.93% under the old method, 7.99% using the new.
I'll actually list both ROI% calculations for a couple of weeks and if anyone has a different opinion about the above change, I'd be interested to hear it, but I think I have it right, albeit a little late.