Wednesday, 25 March 2015

FTL Update 24.March And FTL Update

A very quiet midweek, with entries from Talkies Tips and Mortimer only. Talkies Tips was the winner, making 2.92 points and moving up two places, while Mortimer was the loser dropping 3.00 points, three places, and into the red. Overall a small loss of 0.08 points on the round.

Here are those entries along with the innocent, idle bystanders moving either up or down:

The penultimate monthly prize will be headed to Australia unless someone can overtake Gecko from the abbreviated schedule coming up.
Not to jinx him, but Gecko would be the seventh unique monthly winner. 

Also, unless I hear any objections, I'll revise the settlement of Lay bets moving forward effective immediately, to use the odds on the other two options (Double Chance) to calculate the returns.

So for a match where the odds are for example (over-round 200%)
a lay of the three options will now return (rounded):
This compares with the old formulas returns of 0.29, 0.38 and 0.92. Small changes that will only affect Layers, and by very little, but in the absence of the AH +/- 0.5 prices, this method does have the advantage of still using Pinnacle's prices. And as stupid as I am, it didn't take me too many days to come up with the formula.
As with the other bets, the Pinnacle returns represent the minimum return you could expect. In real-life they will be higher - how much higher depends on where you can bet. 


Marty said...

I object to revising the settlement of lay bets

jamiea said...

So back bets have a 2% margin and lay bets have 4%!

I would understand making the lay bets have a higher margin for the rest of the season since they had a lower margin for the season to date - but the fairest way is still:
Pinnacle back price * (pinnacle margin)^2 = lay price

Then lay and back markets have the same margin.