Tuesday, 17 March 2015

FTL Update 16.March

Another losing round in the FTL with a modest 7.40 points lost overall. The number of entries in profit dropped to 16 as Mortimer dropped into the red zone, and there are another five entries clinging on to a profit by less than two points. More than half the entries (17) are in single figures, either up or down.

The big weekend winner was BettingTools.co.uk who moved to a new high after Burnley's win over Manchester City boosted his profit to 10.13 points. He regains first place from Gecko who drops to second despite making a solid 3.81 points. Randolph and Trend to end chose to stay idle, the former presumably resting before his tough upcoming Erskine Cup semi-final, and remain in third and fourth places respectively.

Moving up one place to fifth, XX Draws made a second highest profit of 5.58 points with four winners out of eight picks, and on a good weekend for draw hunters, Drawmaster made 3.55 points, TFA (Bounty Boy) made 3.06 points, TFA Euro Draws made 2.00 points and only Draw Picks let the draw portfolio down losing 4.42 points.

The profits from draws were a pleasant surprise. In the top five leagues, there were only 10 draws (from 49 matches) which usually bodes ill but the XX Draws found the only draw in France, one of two in Germany, and two of three from Italy. TFA Euro Draws also found the solitary French draw, plus one of two in Spain, and all three in Italy (from 17 selections).  In the Lower Four leagues in England there were 17 draws (from 48 matches). Drawmaster found his four winners (from 9 selections) here as did TFA Draws with three winners from 7.

The remaining Bounty Boys all had losses. Football Elite were down just 0.40 points, Skeeve lost 1.14 points and Football Investor lost 5.43 points. Combined liabilities remain at £1,725.
The leaders in profit by 10 points or more, a group of just five now, are:
Others in profit are:
XX Unders recovered some of last week's losses with six winners from eight, and moved up four places as did Online Trader. Club Havana was the big loser losing on all 8 selections and dropping three places as did Draw Picks. Jamie A's weekend wasn't the best losing 2.96 points but the others all had modest losses, or in Fairfranco's case, a modest gain.

The down by less than 10 points group is led by Mortimer who lost 5.06 points and four places, and the winner here is Graeme's TFA Draws who made back 3.06 points and climbed two places.
No prize money on the line for any of the remaining entries but signs of a pulse from Drawmaster, and TFA Euro Draws while Sjosta (-5.94) and Football Investor struggled. Paul Watson came up with a new strategy of looking for Draw Trebles. One actually hit, but unfortunately a treble that would have made over 39 points in profit included Newport County, who had already played Cheltenham Town on Friday evening before the email was received. I'm not sure if this game was initially scheduled for the Friday night, and while I am sure it was an innocent error (always assume best intent) it's a reminder to double-check kick-off times. As always, I run this friendly competition as fairly to everyone as I can, so the bet was settled as a winning double.  
With the end of the season in sight, a reminder to have your selections in prior to kick-off for Tuesday and Friday matches, and by midnight (or close to it) those nights for other matches.  
More games coming up this midweek in the Lower Four, so another update after those results are settled.

Statwatch: Some more observations on the nine most followed leagues.

Draws in Serie A are at 34% compared with an average over the previous five seasons of 26.1%. There have already been more draws this season than last, and we have 112 matches to go. With 91 matches remaining in the EPL, the Draw count is just one behind last season's record low

This season's Highs since 2003-04:

Draws in Serie A (34%)
Away wins in La Liga (30.7%)
Home wins in Ligue 1 (48.1%)
Away wins in Ligue 1 (27.7%)
Away wins in League One (35.3%)
Away wins in all nine leagues (30.3%)

And Lows:

Home wins in Serie A (38.1%)
Draws in Ligue 1 (24.2%)
Draws in league One (24.3%)
Home wins in the Big Five (44.8%)
Lowest Ratio Home Goals to Away Goals in Serie A (1.24) and League One (1.08)

1 comment:

Tictac said...

what are the rules for the FTL, for e.g. which bookmakers are/aren't allowed, and what is the time range in which you can take odds (e.g. are opening lines allowed)?

I would possibly be interested in joining next season, who is/isn't allowed to enter?