Friday, 26 August 2016

Achtung Bundeslayga Followers

The Bundesliga starts tonight, with Champions Bayern Munich at 1.1 to beat Werder Bremen. In the past four seasons, Bayern Munich have Closed at 1.11 or shorter (90%+ Implied Probability) 15 times, and won every match. At the 80%+ IP level, backing Bayern Munich would have resulted in a 1.65 profit from 52 bets, an ROI of 3.2%.

For anyone wondering if Away Steamers are also profitable in the Bundesliga, the answer is historically, yes. Again looking at the past four seasons, and Pinnacle's Closing Prices courtesy of Football Data, backing the 154 Away teams whose price shortened by 10% or more would have won you 9.42 points (ROI of 6.1%).

Home Steamers of the same 10% are value lays, backing the 77 at Closing odds would have lost 17.01 points, an ROI of -22%.

Many of you will be familiar with the Bundeslayga System. A review of this System's performance using Closing Odds shows a theoretical profit of 4.47 from 361 selections from 2012-2016, an ROI of 1.2%. This compares to the 8.12 point profit at the earlier scrape prices, and evidence that Closing Odds are more accurate.

The numbers show that historically home favourites are not value backs beyond the 50% range, and that laying home favourites in the 40% to 75% implied probability range would be a better strategy, and I am following this for the 2016-17 season.

Bundeslayga has been a steady profit maker for several seasons now, but in Bundesliga.1 last season, it made its first loss, although Bundeslayga.2 made up for it. Time for a change - markets adapt, and this one may finally have caught up with us.

The selections should almost double to around 166 a season.

Related to yesterday's post, and for Peter and Jimmy's 'even money shots', a fair and balanced range from 1.91 to 2.1 would have lost 5.69 points from 173 selections (ROI -3.3%).

SmithLondon commented on my previous post:

"At kick off? Admittedly, it is possible that Jimmy has access to kick-off (Closing) prices from several bookmakers, but I am not aware that this data is readily available."
This is a bugbear of mine with Betfair. Since 2014 they have had SPs on Premier League games but unlike all their other SP prices they do not publish them. I have asked in vain. I have taken to recording them this season myself. Would be interested if you know of anyone who has recorded them since they started and would be willing to make them available.
I do not know of anyone who has Betfair SPs, but unless you have good reason to suspect that Pinnacle's Closing Odds are not accurate, I would simply use those. Recording them yourself sounds like a big commitment for little gain. Betfair's decision not to make them available, but make racing and other SPs available suggests to me that there is value in the former, and not in the latter.    

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