Wednesday, 3 August 2016

Correct Me If I'm Wrong

Vas Pi writes:

man you re a genius
of course you know that but i want to make it pretty clear once again
i said it too from the first day that Brexit will never happen, simply because it s no good for the City banksters, but your perspective here is a totally new light for my opinion
you see, being a greek i know very well how easy is to cansel a ref decision..
I doubt that any readers would disagree with that opening assessment, and regular readers are now well aware that the referendum had 'no force in law', something that strangely wasn't talked about much during the campaign. France and the Netherlands have also ignored previous EU referenda results, and the reference from Vas Pi was of course to the austerity referendum in Greece last year. As the Independent reported:
There are a number of examples of referendums in Europe which have been ignored by the government of the day.
The most recent and striking example was in July last year when the Greek people voted by about 61 per cent to 39 per cent to reject harsh austerity policies sought by the EU and other global institutions in exchange for a multi-billion-pound bailout.

Despite the vote, the left-wing government in Athens, fearing the country’s banks and economy would collapse, agreed shortly afterwards to even tougher austerity measures.
61% for Oxi was quite a decisive mandate, ('quite' being used here in that British understatement way):
What the British say: "QUITE good" (with the stress on the "quite")
What the British mean: "A bit disappointing"
What is understood: "Quite good"
What the British say: "quite GOOD" (with the stress on the "good ")
What the British mean: "excellent"
What is understood: "Quite good"
The 51.9% majority in the UK vote really wasn't decisive at all, and were the vote to be held again today, with polls reporting that 1.1 million Leavers now regret their votes, it is likely that Remain would win comfortably.

My parents however are still desperately trying to justify their votes, although they seem to be down to "well, lots of other people voted to leave too". My response that a lot of people also voted for Hitler did not go down well, and I fear I may be disinherited.

Anyway, I'm still struggling to see how Brexit might actually happen, and no Article 50 before July 2017 will continue to shorten as this reality sinks in. Last price matched on Betfair now down to 1.88.

I've been spending quite a few hours looking at the Bundeslayga numbers this summer, now that we have four full seasons of Pinnacle's odds data available, courtesy of Joseph Buchdahl's excellent, essential and free site. For football betting, it has long been a problem determining the equivalent of horse racing's SP, and the historic data Joseph collects was less than perfect due to the random scrape times, so this news was exciting:
Over four seasons using the somewhat random snapshot prices, the Bundeslayga has made a verifiable total profit of 31.47 points from 761 selections (Bundesliga.1 and Bundesliga.2) which is an ROI of 4.14%. How much, and in what direction, this number changes when using closing prices will be interesting to see, as will a few other long-term profitable methods.

I haven't mentioned Ian Erskine for some while, because he's been rather quiet through the summer, but as the new season approaches, he has found his voice. He posted a guest post on his blog this past weekend, and an inspirational one for those of you who say "it can't be done".
As a gambler I made all the mistakes typical gamblers make. I chased my losses, jumped from system to system when I had any sort of losing runs and I wasted hours of my life blaming other people. I would read Ian’s blogs and set my bank and then bail out after losing 50%. After all it was never my fault, it was the tipster, it was the ref, it was the overpaid footballers, it was the jockey, it was Ian’s fault and so on.
I must add at this point that when you have been doing things as long as I have you develop bad habits that are hard to get out of. The biggest of these is a fear of change. If I’m honest now, I have to admit that I was afraid to change my attitude because it was harder to accept that I was doing something wrong than blaming other people.
I have never been one to keep up with technology. Twitter, Facebook and other things like this are alien to me. And one look at Microsoft excel was enough to send shivers down my back.
So how did I go from someone who had continuously lost to getting within the brink of having to pay premium charge in just a few short years? The short answer is the Odds Sheets.
Like most people when I first saw them I filed it in the “I don’t understand / too difficult” drawer. There it stayed until around just over 2 years ago. But after yet another unsuccessful attempt at having a go at another system which I signed up to online, I decided that enough is enough. I needed to change and I needed to go back to the very basics.
I decided that I was going to make it my mission to understand and use the odds sheets. I had read that other members like Kav were using it and were successful and so decided that I had to learn to use them.
You see one of my big problems was that I was never very good at trading in a game. I would get jittery half way through and trade out when I shouldn’t or stay in when I should cut my losses. So the idea of being able to place a bet and forget about it appealed to me.
This first thing I did was to get a basic understanding of excel so that it wasn’t so alien to me. I then set about trying to find my own systems from the odds sheet. It didn’t take very long before I stumbled across a pretty safe looking backing home team strategy. Once I had discovered that, it seemed so easy.
I was tentative at first but I asked Ian for his advice on bank and staking and he suggested I set myself a 50 points bank (£5,000 bank). My first bet was placed in February 2014 and within the first month I had lost 10 points – this was unprecedented for the system. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t close to packing in it all in and looking for another system to subscribe to but I made a decision that I would continue until my entire 50 points had gone. My system then went on an incredible run where I doubled my bank by the end of the season. This was the first time I had actually won!
Buoyed by my success I pressed on and spent the summer coming up with a few more systems and had a small portfolio which suited my mindset. I set my bank and a staking plan for them and decided by the end of it I’ll either have lost my bank or done something great. In total I had 5 systems, 3 back systems (including my backing home teams) and 2 lay systems, all of which were my own but purely from the odds sheet.
In my first full season I won close to £70K and added another 2 systems to my portfolio. Last season as my stakes grew I won over £120K and with my stakes at an average of £1,000 now I anticipate that I will be breaking through the £250K mark at some point.
Not every system has always won and I’ve had times where my bank has stood still or gone down, but the one thing that I never did was to change my attitude or path. I’m going to be betting my very first system that I came up with again this season as well – proof that you can come up with strategies that win every year.
They key to being successful from using the odds sheet is to take responsibility and try to use them beyond just a tipping service. You need to accept that you need to do some work yourself and once you begin to see how easy it is to find your own systems you won’t look back.
I should emphasise that I’m not a spreadsheet wizard, even now. I have a very basic knowledge of computers and have a very basic PC with just a couple of spreadsheets to record my results. So believe me when I say that if I can do it any FTS member can.
I honestly can’t believe how far I have come from that first bet that I placed. I have recently switched to being part time at work (as it is a job I love so didn’t want to quit) and spend my spare time doing the two things I love – fishing and golf.
I’ve already signed up to FTS Ultimate for this season and now I’m ready for the new season.
Good luck to you all.
I confess that I am not familiar with the 'odds sheets' mentioned, nor am I endorsing Ian's service, although having 'known' Ian for several years I have no doubt that he is a decent and genuine guy. My real interest here was in how a perennial loser was able to change his habits, begin betting in a disciplined way with a positive mindset, turn the corner and start making decent money. And this is someone who is less than at home in an Excel spreadsheet!

As for "proof that you can come up with strategies that win every year" and "find your own systems", this is certainly true, but it's not quite as easy as the writer makes it sound. As Ian writes in a subsequent post, also worth reading:
Success is not fast, luck is fast. Success is hard work and perseverance. Success is, as I mentioned in my last post, having a plan and seeing it through.
You guys want luck, not success. You’re not built for it. Time and time again you give up. If something does not work for a few weeks or months you’re done.
As another calendar month is now behind us, a couple of updates from baseball systems I use. The Home Improvement system Straight Up is +3.25 points from 13 bets, while the Run Line is +4.61 from 12 bets. (The different bet totals is due to the Throwback Jersey incident I wrote about earlier).
Barrie's Revenge had a tremendous July, erasing May and June's losses and now up on the season by 8.97 points. Note to self - check the record of this system after the All-Star break. 

The T-Bone system had losses in July, but still ahead on the year:
Lest you think that making money from betting baseball is all smooth sailing, my Mountain High System lost 4.80 points in July, although is still up on the season by 3.54 points (ROI 6.5%).

Finally some more of those British euphemisms, from an article titled "This may interest you* " courtesy of the always interesting Economist:
What the British say: "I hear what you say"
What the British mean: "I disagree and do not want to discuss it any further"
What is understood: "He accepts my point of view"
What the British say: "This is in no sense a rebuke"
What the British mean: "I am furious with you and letting you know it"
What is understood: "I am not cross with you"
What the British say: "With the greatest respect"
What the British mean: "I think you are wrong (or a fool)"
What is understood: "He is listening to me"
What the British say: "Correct me if I'm wrong"
What the British mean: "I know I'm right--please don't contradict me"
What is understood: "Tell me what you think"
What the British say: "That's not bad"
What the British mean: "That's good or very good"
What is understood: "That's poor or mediocre"
What the British say: "Perhaps you would like to think about...."/"I would suggest..." /"It would be nice if..."
What the British mean: "This is an order. Do it or be prepared to justify yourself..."
What is understood: "Think about the idea, but do what you like"

What the British say: "Do as much as you think is justified"
What the British mean: "Do it all"
What is understood: "Do what you can"
What the British say: "Oh, by the way/Incidentally ..."
What the British mean: "The primary purpose of our discussion is..."
What is understood: "This is not very important ..."
What the British say: "I was a bit disappointed that/It is a pity you..."
What the British mean: "I am most upset and cross"
What is understood: "It doesn't really matter"
What the British say: "Very interesting"
What the British mean: "I don't agree/I don't believe you"
What is understood: "They are impressed"
What the British say: "Could we consider some other options"
What the British mean: "I don't like your idea"
What is understood: "They have not yet decided"
What the British say: "I'll bear it in mind "
What the British mean: "I will do nothing about it"
What is understood: "They will probably do it"
What the British say: "Please think about that some more"
What the British mean: "It's a bad idea: don't do it"
What is understood: "It's a good idea, keep developing it"
What the British say: "I'm sure it's my fault"
What the British mean: "I know it is your fault, please apologise"
What is understood: "It was somebody else's fault"
What the British say: "That is an original point of view"
What the British mean: "You must be mad, or very silly"
What is understood: "They like my ideas!"
What the British say: “I'm sure you'll get there eventually”
What the British mean: “You don't stand a chance in hell”
What is understood: “Keep on trying; they agree I'm on the right track”
*Read this now and don't forget it 

No comments: