Thursday, 11 August 2016

Très Basique

A couple of comments on recent posts, first up being Webbo, aka Betting Tools Brian, who wrote:

Interesting post Cassini and this along with my recent reasonable amount of early success following the money with my horse racing market movers
( has prompted me to trial something similar in English Football, again using Betfair's exchange.

I previously thought that the odds movements for football would be far less significant than in horse racing but your post, albeit analysing Pinnacle's closing prices, gives me hope. Findings from our football betting so far have shown that selections priced 2/1 and above are where the majority of value can be found and mostly in away selections.
So to begin with I'll be looking at homes and aways that have come in by 1% or more (with significant enough liquidity) that are priced over 2/1. Odds will be collected every 30 minutes in the lead up to kick off. I'm not sure something that moved by just 1 percent is necessarily a steamer though and will go with the tres basique name of 'Footy Movers' for this profile.
I actually think 1% might be too low and trigger too many bets and so will increase this number if necessary. The profile will be here if anyone is interested:

I can easily amend to set a similar profile up for the draw if you or anyone else has any ideas for criteria that you think could be of interest.
Check out that last link as the season progresses, and let Brian know if you have any requests.

Stewboss asked:
What's the filter? Have I missed something?
while Baz, aka Barrie, asked:
As draws are low scoring can additional profit be made by betting the unders or correct score1 1-1 and/or 0-0 ? 
Unfortunately we, or at least I, don't have any Correct Score prices, nor do I have closing prices on the Unders, but running the numbers based on the early scrape, backing the Unders where the Draw price is 4.0 or less would have lost you 52.08 points over the past four EPL seasons, and that is generously using the maximum Under 2.5 price from Football Data.

Applying the filter I mentioned (but didn't reveal, as I give far too much information away for free as it is) and the Under does move into profit, although a minuscule one at 0.19 points. Looking at the four other top leagues (La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1) the total profit here is potentially 32.98 points.

While it is true that if the Under is a value bet, then the Draw is always a value bet, it isn't necessarily true that value on the Draw means the Under is value.

Essentially this 'anything-but-subtle' très basique system, takes advantage of an inefficient market consistently underestimating the probability of the Draw, which is not a popular outcome for some reason, and long may it continue to be ignored.

Overall in the EPL (since the 20 team format was introduced in 1995), Under Draws (0:0 and 1:1) make up 75.8% of Draws (and 19.8% of all matches). Blindly backing every Draw priced at a 0.25+ probability results in 71.3% of the Draws being Unders.

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