Monday, 15 August 2016


I made an error in my calculations on EPL Steamers and Drifters. Very embarrassing, but the numbers in the original post have been updated as leaving them there incorrectly would have been misleading.

Fortunately the main discovery, that Away steamers are profitable, is still true, although 87 selections steaming by 10% or more in four seasons isn't much of a sample size. For what it's worth, the revised ROI% for these is now 18.5%, although it will have climbed following the weekend's results.

As shown, three Away teams shortened by 10% or more, and all three won which would have been a 29-1 treble for those who do these things.

For those tracking the Draw in the EPL this season, the basic 4.0 or less draw price meant eight qualifiers, and three of those ended 1:1 for a 2.75 point profit.

Leicester City's opening day loss has also moved my Top 10, Top 4, Top 3 Lays into the money already. At somewhere in the ~1.6s for a top 10 finish, they are still too short in my opinion. Several of those top ten places are all but filled already, and with the distraction of the Champions League, I can see Leicester City struggling to finish above the likes of Everton, Southampton and West Ham United (although the latter may experience a slump in form as they settle in to a new stadium). I was hoping my Crystal Palace would be in contention for a top 10 finish too, but an opening day home less to a bottom half team wasn't the most promising of starts (unless you are following the Away Steamers system I guess).        

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