Tuesday, 9 April 2019

Over Easy

Hopefully a few of you were able to make a little money on the NCAAB (College Basketball) National Championship game last night.
The Overs came in comfortably to say the least, at a very generous 2.34, which was always too low in my admittedly subjective opinion, but an opinion informed by objective statistics. 

It was the second largest margin (40.5 points) for Overs in the entire tournament, helped by overtime, but the win was already in the bag in regulation.  

In NCAA tournament games where the line is two points or fewer, the average line is 137.3 points. In Conference tournament matches, the total averages 136.8 and in NIT matches, 141.5. 

One reason why it often pays to fade the public is that many 'experts' were influenced by the two teams combining for eight Unders in their ten matches to date, by a combined 97 points. 

It's called the Recency Effect, and from personal experience, I can say that understanding how this affects betting decisions is possibly one of the most important lessons you can learn if you are serious about making your sports betting profitable.

Virginia ran away with the game in overtime, comfortably covering the 1.5 points, and ensuring both our bets won. 

Incidentally, this season is quite a contrast to this tournament last year, when Virginia were the tournament top seed, and managed to lose in the opening round when favoured by 20.5 points.  

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