Bots and HFA in the NFL

Beeblebrox, possibly not his real name, had an explanation for my observation that recently bets placed between the available back and lay money are often being matched instantaneously:

That will be a bot matching your bet. It's very simple to create bots that get notified about every change in a market and then they decide what action to take.

This makes sense, although why this is something I've only noticed recently is still a mystery, since bots have been around for a long time. It could be a timing issue with these bets being placed closer to the event start time than usual, as apparently it's nothing new as Subscriber Rob let me know:

Regarding your latest blog post on bets getting matched on Betfair at
‘Invisible odds’

This has definitely been happening for quite some time and occurs on other sports not just NFL although I do notice it more on American sports.

And a subsequent email today pointed out that it:

Happened again last night. I put in 1.76 for the Islanders and it got matched immediately despite the market being 1.75 / 1.77. They lost!

It's not been the best of runs lately for the NHL Systems, but the ROI is at 9.1% for the season which is in line with their records since 2005.

Two more likely selections tomorrow night.

Subscriber Larry sent me an interesting article on the value of Home Field Advantage in the NFL, a value which is constantly evolving and needs to be looked at on a team by team basis. The article concludes with a table showing the highest as 6.3 points (Detroit Lions) and the lowest as -1.5 (Washington Commanders).

Five of the eight 'North' teams feature in the top 10 which is likely due to their familiarity with the weather, while only two 'West' teams feature in the top half, one of which is Denver with the 'mile-high' location the likely major factor.