Sunday 17 January 2010

Correct Score Value

The Correct Score market is one that I have pretty much ignored in the past. My simple brain prefers fewer selections, and the fewer the better. Give me a basketball game, a tennis / snooker / darts match or an NFL game with two outcomes, and my brain is happy. The price moves out on one selection, and in on the other, as the events of the game unfold.

Next we have sports like football, where the draw or tie becomes an extra outcome. Things start to get complicated, and then we have markets such as the Correct Score with its 17 possible outcomes. Daunting, but the truth is that these markets are as complicated as you choose to make them.

There are a few threads on the betting forums about the correct score market, but most seem to favour laying various scores. I can see the appeal. With 17 runners, it’s a lot easier to pick a loser, but the downside of course is that when you pick a winner, it is costly.

A popular strategy is to lay the 0-0 score, but typically after a good sequence, out of nowhere comes that 0-0 and all profits (and more) are gone. I like the idea of a good flow of winning bets, but I also know that the laws of probability are not suspended when my bets are on the line, and thus if I am laying the 0-0 at 10.0, then I can expect a losing bet every ten games.

Another idea is laying the 3-3 score, but similar to the 0-0, although less frequently, a 3-3 score comes along at the inevitable huge price, and weeks of profits are wiped out.

None of these ‘systems’ are for me, but as my regular reader will know, I have been playing with a spreadsheet that, given the ratings of two teams, forecasts a team’s supremacy in an upcoming match. It’s still in its infancy, but the early results show promise in a number of ways.

For example, a predicted supremacy of 2 goals has been forecast in the Premier League in the past week on three occasions; Manchester City v Blackburn Rovers; Aston Villa v West Ham; Arsenal @ Bolton.

Bets (to a 10 point stake) in the Match Odds market would have resulted in profits (losses) of 4.9, (10) and 6 and a net profit of 0.9.

Bets in the Correct Score market (covering 2-0, 3-1 or Any Unquoted) would have resulted in profits of 34, (30) and 58 and a net profit of 62.

For the three goal supremacy teams this week, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, bets in the Match Odds market would have resulted in a loss of 5.6 whereas bets in the Correct Score market (covering 3-0 and Any Unquoted) would have resulted in profits of 25, 60 and (20) and a net profit of 65.

Whether or not this strategy will continue to return so positively remains to be seen, but nothing ventured, nothing gained, and I shall continue to play with the numbers.

Football Elite had four recommended bets today; Real Mallorca beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-0 at 2.12, but that was the only winner as Parma, Almeria and Bordeaux could all only manage draws.

Since I subscribed, the 24 selections have had only 2 losses, but no less than 13 draws!

On the short-list, (not tips, but selections that came close to selection), Blackburn Rovers beat Fulham at 2.58 to end a losing run for these selections at 11, followed later by Napoli who could only draw.


Jay said...

Hey Cassini,

I've been looking into the CS market as of late, though I think there is more to it than simply looking at past results.

Think you need to take into consideration, the team sheet, current form, history of the teams playing.

From that I'll try work out whether it will be O/U 2.5 goals, and check out the lowest odds on the CS Market before making a decision.

Managed quite a few games over the weekend laying AU at around the 4/5 mark, where I've thought the game would be under 2.5 goals.

Traded out the Villencia game for a small lost due to Villereal getting a Red Card, lucky I did, they went on to win 4-1.


CSL said...

Try looking at the goalscoring abilities of the underdog. I'll try to calculate whether they are capable of scoring 2 goals(underdogs rarely are) in the game then go from there.
Have a look at my blog for further discussion on correct score laying strategy: