Friday, 6 January 2012
Pre-Game Danger
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General Betting Blogs
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Profitable Betting Rules6 months ago
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Horse Racing
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Sedgefield (Thurs)15 hours ago
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Thursday's Lay Bets (14th November)17 hours ago
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Other Blogs I Read
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5th November - SIPP Update1 week ago
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As Mr Smith said1 week ago
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Experts vs. Imitators5 months ago
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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5 comments:
Cassini
I saw that earlier on too...took some of Miami at 2.8 and then at 3.5...closed out at HT for a nice bit of green. Looking at Dallas now and even though they are 26 pts behind at HT I think a lay of spurs at 1.02 could be a good play. Hope all works out well for you tonight!
Rudy
Got that one right as well! Miami went on to win the game! Good call, but a close call. You're like a guru of somekind Cassini.
I'm interested ti know whether you placed the bet and let it run or traded it out at some point. I believe that at some point Atlanta's odds hit 1.11 right? So it waould take some massive danglers to hold your nerve in that situation. As an aside I took the wrong side of that bet i.e. backed Atlanta at 1.55, but after watching the first quarter decided I was wrong and placed an order to lay at 1.55 and went to bed. What a prudent move that turned out to be. I have to second 500-5000's comment and say that you are a guru, I mean everything seemed to indicate an Atlanta win but you positioned yourself in the opposite direction and came out on top.
loudsight - I was out of my position by half-time when the price was evens. Atlanta went as low as 1.02 before the game went to overtime - another example of the price going too low too soon, and then we had the Heat at 1.07 before the Hawks again went favourite.
Surely, the reason the odds went down to 1.02 on Atlanta is because they were about to win the game. There were about 10 seconds to go when Miami got the points to head into overtime. I don't think anyone could have accurately predicted that Miami were going to win the overtime battle. I think Cassini got the call right because he had traded out of the game at that stage. Maybe, he doesn't have mystic powers after all.
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