Commissiongate

Commissiongate goes on. BigAl concedes that:

There are no rules.

But as someone who has previously taken delight in savaging tipster services, I thought you might actually be interested in presenting figures for your subscription service in an honest fashion with a true reflection of ROI.

Quite simply, the ROI you present it not achievable by following your bets.

A question for you re: football elite.

If they suggest 3.50 as a mimimum price for a bet, would you take 12-5 with a fixed odds firm?

I don't recall savaging tipster services other than the ridiculous Sports Betting Professor which simply didn't work, and which I had actually forgotten about. It is another service that I have first-hand experience of, even if short-lived (and I didn't pay for) and I don't recall any commission being included in the results. I'm certainly not aware that I have 'savaged' any services on the basis of their not including a commission deduction from their numbers. Anyway, as I wrote yesterday,

The intent of a Tipster Table is not to show a precise return but rather to illustrate the relative merits of each contestant.

The ROI will of course vary from one individual to another, in fact my numbers may be on the low side for some. As Webbo says:

Many bookmakers are offering better prices than Betfair these days especially on shorter selections so your prices might well be achievable with no commission.

Indeed, and aside from the varying commission rates punters face, there is also the question of what prices can be achieved and which should be used. In the interests of time and convenience, I use what I am matched at myself, although this is unlikely to always be the best price available - although I hope it's not too far off! Laidback added:

Webbo is right about better prices being available other than Betfair. I've just checked and I used Betfair for less than a third of my football bets this weekend and that's mainly on the long-priced selections. Even if leaving a reasonable asking price on Betfair, better has been available elsewhere on the shorties,after commission is factored in.

Quite simply, the Friendly Tipster Table is a tool for comparing selections and should not be the only basis for an investment decision, which brings me nicely to the last part of BigAl's comment which is

If they [Football Elite] suggest 3.50 as a mimimum price for a bet, would you take 12-5 with a fixed odds firm?

As I wrote in my post yesterday (which it appears BigAl may not have read, or understood)

A disappointing start to the weekend for Football Elite, with Fiorentina losing heavily at home to Napoli 0-3. I had Fiorentina at 2.71 for this game, and the 2.4 available did not appeal.

Football Elite gave bookmakers and prices in the range of 2.38 to 2.42, but even if 2.71 had been available, this would not have been a value bet for me. Whether or not I would take 3.4 on a selection tipped at 3.5 would depend entirely on my price for the game in question.

The other comments yesterday in full were this one from Webbo:

Hi Cassini, I have been caclulating my results based on 5% commission but I agree that it's a better comparison not to include it. Many bookmakers are offering better prices than betfair these days especially on shorter selections so your prices might well be achievable with no commission.

Is your friendly tipster league limited to draws and unders? I wondered if you could include my premier league selections if not please? I have been pricing up every premier league game and currently showing 17.73% ROI after 49 bets. If I take off commision it's 26.1%. There's also a Kelly stake comparison. Here's a link to my sheet in case you're interested. Premier League Selections

When you are trialling a system, presumably with the intent to invest money if it proves successful, you do of course need to include the commission that you will be paying. Similarly when reporting a win of a certain amount, it is assumed that this is including commission. The Friendly Tipster League is not limited to Draws and Unders. If you send me the selections you want included ahead of the match, I will start including these. I'm assuming that not every match offers a value selection. Then laidback wrote:

Just a little word for my Green Pullover blog if that's ok. Though unfortunately it's not reflected by the draws which sit 8th in your table, the blog as a whole has an roi of 5.4% to last weekend over 599 bets. That's after commission, but that's because I wanted my blog to represent my actual profit (or loss!). Webbo is right about better prices being available other than Betfair. I've just checked and I used Betfair for less than a third of my football bets this weekend and that's mainly on the long-priced selections. Even if leaving a reasonable asking price on Betfair, better has been available elsewhere on the shorties,after commission is factored in. By the way,only had a break-even mid week on my blog but got both matches right last night including Inter losing again at long odds on, so that should help the roi. That said, I still have 29 bets to go this weekend so plenty of time for carnage yet!

The original intent of the Friendly Tipster Table was just to compare other draw selections with my own, and as a subscriber to Football Elite, thought I would throw their results in there too. I would love to have the time to include all your categories, especially as it seems the draws are about the worst performing of them all, but 30+ bets a weekend is just too many.

Speaking of results, not such a good day for the XX Selections, with Kaiserslautern losing 1-2 to Borussia Moenchengladbach, and Lille 0-1 to Lorient, with the smallest of comfort crumbs in a winning Under bet. Football Elite's Ajaccio selection failed to beat Brest, and Mark J's two selections of Getafe and Nancy both failed to win. A full update of the Friendly Tipster Table tomorrow, commission excluded.