Below The Surface

Full Speed Ahead, Mr Dalglish

Looking at reasons for Liverpool's under-achieving, compared with their ratings, and it is typified by the two results below, coincidentally exactly six months apart.

On 10.Sep.2011, Liverpool  lost 0-1 at Stoke City, who had just one shot on target (to Liverpool's 11).

Then on 10.Mar.2012, Liverpool lost 0-1 at Sunderland, who had just one shot on target (to Liverpool's 5).

The League Table simply awards 3 points to the victors, and none to the vanquished, but clearly this is far too simplistic when rating teams in a low scoring game like football. Liverpool are better than their record suggests, although going an entire season without turning their 'real strength' into points is quite an achievement!

Betfree247 commented on the ratings:

Surprised to see Stoke down there to be honest. If Villa get their next managerial appointment wrong they could be a casualty next season, squad looks very poor on paper and they need someone who will be able to work on a tight budget, no point them hiring a cheque book manager.

Stoke City's rating may be a bit false given that they quite clearly took their foot off the pedal once safety was earned. Working backwards from the end of the season, there was the 2-2 draw with lowly rated Bolton Wanderers, a sorry 0-1 loss at QPR where may managed just one shot on target, draws at home to Everton and Arsenal (who both had more shots than their hosts) , a thrashing at Newcastle where they managed all of two shots on target, and a draw at Aston Villa (three shots on goal).

Meanwhile in that time-frame, Wigan were getting seven shots on goal in a 1-2 loss at Chelsea, defeating (and out shooting) Manchester United, winning at Arsenal with another seven shots on goal, thrashing Newcastle United 4-0, and winning at Blackburn Rovers with 19 shots.

Poorest effort of the season was Blackburn's failure to muster a single shot at Tottenham at the end of April. Contrast this with the strategy of Wigan, and it's hard to think other than that both strugglers got what they deserved. In fairness, Wigan had just two shots at home to Everton in February, although they earned a point courtesy of an own goal that day.

The prize for most shots in one game? Manchester City's 35 on Sunday in the season finale. 

Worthy of note was Aston Villa's failure to get a shot on target in their 1-2 defeat at home to West Bromwich Albion last October, (penalties don't count as shots on target apparently), and they may well struggle again. Appointing Alex McLeish was always a strange decision to me, although I said that about Pardew at Newcastle, so don't read too much into my opinion of managerial appointments. So long as Dougie Freedman doesn't end up there - he's not on the list, for now at least.