Gunning For Value

I received a plaintive email from Jon (Fedslam) yesterday, asking if there was a problem with his entry into the Friendly Tipster League. Certainly not. The only slight problem was that they were rather good, and makes the rest of us look bad. Jon had two bets on tonight's Everton v Newcastle United game, and had the game ended 2-1 as looked very likely at one point, (1.05) he would have had a great start, but instead he makes a good start. For the record, here are his tips for the weekend just ended:

Aston Villa v Swansea - Total Goals: 2 or 3 (2.12, Betdaq)
Fulham v West Brom - Total Goals: 2 or 3 (2.12, Betdaq)
Man Utd v Wigan - Asian Handicap: Man Utd -1.5 (1.85, Pinnacle)
QPR v Chelsea - Match Odds: Chelsea win (1.9, Pinnacle)
Stoke v Man City - Both Teams to Score: Yes (1.93, BetVictor)
Sunderland v Liverpool - Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals (1.79, Pinnacle)
Everton v Newcastle - Match Odds: Everton win (1.9, Stan James)
Everton v Newcastle - Total Goals: 2 or 3 (2.11, Betdaq)

Apologies if I missed anyone else's selections this weekend, it was a busy few days for me, but the latest table is over at Gold All Over. (I just noticed a couple of entries made with comments over there - I shall add them later, but it's best to send them, with prices to me at calciocassini @ aol.com ;)

Other than Jon, the other in-profit selections apart from the XX Draws are Tony's tips +3.23, Premier Betting +2.45, Football Elite +0.7 and Neil +0.25.

Leading the way, top three, are the Extended HT00 (+9.91), Extended U2.5 (+6.91) and Bundesliga Draws (+6.40). In form Extended Draws (up 9 places). Out of form Free Under / Over picks (down 7 places).

A couple of interesting UEFA Champions League games tomorrow between teams I track. Arsenal look value to win a Montpellier at 2.2. I have them priced at 1.96, with the draw at 3.48. Montpellier might be French champions, but they are not playing like it with one win in five games, and a loss at newly promoted Stade de Reims on Friday night.

The other game is the Real Madrid v Manchester City game, and here I think Real Madrid are too short at 1.66. Based on their league form, it is certainly too short, but there is the suggestion that Real Madrid (currently trailing Barcelona by eight points) might concede the league and focus on the Champions League.

To quote Sting, I don't subscribe to this point of view. Admittedly Real Madrid have far more experience than Manchester City at this level, heck - they have more experience than anyone at this level, but Manchester City aren't exactly going to roll over, and while they didn't impress at Stoke City, like Chelsea, they may have had an eye of the rather bigger matches on their fixture list.

On Wednesday, the Bayern Munich v Valencia game is priced very close to my numbers, but a lay of Chelsea v Juventus looks the value bet here. Juventus are 100% on the season, and had an impressive come from behind win at Genoa at the weekend.