Friday, 19 October 2012

Fog City

It doesn't always work, oh wait, where have I read that before...

Again, it was close, 13-6, and I'm confident it was a value play, and so long as you are finding value, in the long run, you will win. In the end, it was another tax write-off. I did win small on the Tigers who beat the Yankees, but missed the San Francisco (Giants) game as I was watching the San Francisco (49ers) game. Very poor scheduling in my opinion.

The win by seven points was actually much discussed pre-game on the Betfair Forum. Someone posted:
I'm no mathematical wizz when it comes to odds differences, but surely 1.8s on -7 pts and 2.0s on -7.5 pts is too big a difference?
Seven is, of course, a key number when it comes to betting on the NFL, second only to the three, so what seems to the novice to be a big difference in price between two almost identical scores, is in fact mathematically correct.

More NFL games are won by 3 points, than by any other margin, followed by the 7 point win. As it happens, Andrew from Betting Expert recently wrote an excellent piece on key numbers in the NFL. Well worth a read, and after reading, you should understand why there is a big difference between 7 and 7.5.

Some of you are probably reading this, and wondering if there are key numbers, and what the commonest winning (margin of victory) is, for the NBA. I'll let you ponder it for a few days.

I actually had a play on the horses yesterday afternoon, not in an attempt to win money, but just churning some over. Five races, a small profit of £19 as it happened, but as sports go, it's really doesn't do much for me. No wonder it's dying a slow death.

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