A little tardy this week, as running the numbers for the midweek selections took priority, although we'd have all been better off if I hadn't bothered. Three losses in the French Ligue, and all three saw 3 or 4 goals in them. The only other entrants with midweek selections were Football Formbook with a loser, and Football Elite with a loser. The table below includes the midweek games. Premier Edge was the big winner this weekend with a third consecutive winning weekend moving them up to fifth, and Football Formbook was the big loser dropping down to last (30th) place. Backing the Lay The draw selection is finally hitting some winners, (4 from the last 6 and up to 19th), something Football Elite would like to see fairly soon after the worst run that I can remember from that service which now languishes in 25th spot. Here's the table:
XX Draws added another $2,200 profit and if he can make even $1 profit next week then a small (very small) hamper will be on its way.We shall see. As you all know, the numbers decide the selections, so there's no emotions to them, although with three midweek losers, it's looking like I may be going hungry this Xxmas. I'll try praying.
tyttetrading had a couple of comments, one was:
Hi Cassini, regarding the FTL standings. When betting, its very normal to say that you need at least 500 selections to prove your edge. I am not a member, but do you have this number of selections over the years?I still have some weekend and midweek results to enter, but as of right now there have been 1,175 selections (Classic and Extended) with 378 winners, 32%, which means a 3.11 price is required to break even.
His second one was:
Hi Cassini, I was reading through your service page, since I wanted to look through the stats for your service. However, the "results" page is blank, and I can only find the results for the 2011-12 season (which is only a sample of around 150 picks). Do you have a more samples or a link to more extended results?The 2011-12 results page actually covers 225 selections (from 1.1.11), but I have updated the results page with the 58 Classic and 136 Extended selections for this season to date. For this season to date, the Extended results are good, the Classic not so good, but overall we are in profit with 61 winners from 94 games, 31.4% and 3.18 needed to break even. It was a good decision to expand the service to include the Extended selections.
5 comments:
It's good no emotions are used in your draw selections. Unlike your love of Obama which is based purely on emotion and no logic.
Hi Cassini,
I too am interested in your xx Draws project but am struggling to get a handle on your data.
Do you have an average back price for the draw over the 1175 selections please? I looked in the prospectus and found a figure of 3.45 over 361 selections.
Also taking the 3.45 for a minute, is that a bookie's price or Betfair? If it is the latter is it adjusted for the 5% commission? I don't see Betfair as a viable betting proposition unless you plan to trade, if the 3.45 is not adjusted for comm the margins become wafer thin.
I am impressed by the detail and seriousness with which you approach xx Draws, however my concern is are you really beating the market? Your 3.11 break even price suggests that you are which is good going for sure. However if the 3.45 is pre commission it does look a bit tight. It would be good to clarify too if these prices are near kick off one's or early prices.
Thanks for the great blog Cassini.
Hi Cassini,
I too am interested in your xx Draws project but am struggling to get a handle on your data.
Do you have an average back price for the draw over the 1175 selections please? I looked in the prospectus and found a figure of 3.45 over 361 selections.
Also taking the 3.45 for a minute, is that a bookie's price or Betfair? If it is the latter is it adjusted for the 5% commission? I don't see Betfair as a viable betting proposition unless you plan to trade, if the 3.45 is not adjusted for comm the margins become wafer thin.
I am impressed by the detail and seriousness with which you approach xx Draws, however my concern is are you really beating the market? Your 3.11 break even price suggests that you are which is good going for sure. However if the 3.45 is pre commission it does look a bit tight. It would be good to clarify too if these prices are near kick off one's or early prices.
Thanks for the great blog Cassini.
Hi Cassini,
I too am interested in your xx Draws project but am struggling to get a handle on your data.
Do you have an average back price for the draw over the 1175 selections please? I looked in the prospectus and found a figure of 3.45 over 361 selections.
Also taking the 3.45 for a minute, is that a bookie's price or Betfair? If it is the latter is it adjusted for the 5% commission? I don't see Betfair as a viable betting proposition unless you plan to trade, if the 3.45 is not adjusted for comm the margins become wafer thin.
I am impressed by the detail and seriousness with which you approach xx Draws, however my concern is are you really beating the market? Your 3.11 break even price suggests that you are which is good going for sure. However if the 3.45 is pre commission it does look a bit tight. It would be good to clarify too if these prices are near kick off one's or early prices.
Thanks for the great blog Cassini.
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