Finding Value

Some of you may have read the comment on the last post from Stewboss (Football Investor) regarding his failure to show up for this weekend's Cup match. His entry finally arrived some 12 hours after the official deadline, and while in future I need to disallow any late entries to keep it fair to everyone, I made an exception this time because 1) Stewboss would have send out his selections to subscribers before my deadline, and 2) his opponent in the opening Erskine Cup match was me.

Had it been anyone else, it would have been somewhat unfair to tell them that they only needed to finish in the green to win three points, and then change that, but as I was aware before 3pm that the selections were there, it's not a big deal. In the end, it looks like Football Investor will make a profit, but only around a point or so, and the XX Draws were already ahead after Friday night, and continued their good weekend with two perfect draws from two selections today (Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen and Sunderland v Swansea City). I'm looking good although with several selections still to come tomorrow, nothing is yet guaranteed.

While the Cassini Value Selections have started the season poorly, although this weekend has seen a change in fortune despite Everton's 90th minute equaliser which was more than a little annoying, it was nice to receive a comment from one member who wrote last week:

Again thanks for your hard work and insight into footie betting. This few weeks has changed my view of betting on football and I have started to keep my own stats. I am now looking for the value - which matched Newcastle, Man C and Liverpool.

I know it's a topic that Ian Erskine and I both agree on, but it's worth mentioning again that while the selections themselves are obviously important, the discipline required is just as important. I mentioned above that Everton's 90th minute equaliser was 'annoying', but it's a silly word to use.

To get upset about an individual loss makes as much sense as a casino owner crying over a large payout from one of his slot machines.

If you have an edge, of course. It's a lot easier to handle losses and stay the course if the money doesn't matter (stake sensibly in other words) and if you have confidence in the long term edge of your selections. Value doesn't mean every bet will win - far from it, and in the short term there will be losing runs.

I think Steve M (Daily 25) may be confused about this idea of having value in your selections. Here is one of his selections from today's schedule:

As I said earlier, value doesn't always win.

Finally, on a personal note, I'm struggling to understand my son's decision this weekend to forsake the cosy confines of Selhurst Park and the array of talent in red and blue, for an overseas trip to see another team in those famous colours - one who play at the Nou Camp and feature relative unknowns such as Messi and Neymar. An odd decision in my view.