Friday 25 September 2015

Studies Have Continued

In my post "Studies Have Shown" from July, I pointed out that the strategy of backing baseball shorties has become profitable in recent seasons, after years of this sport being the poster-boy for the reverse favourite-longshot bias.

At the time of that last post, 2015's profit was a solid 7.45 points, and this has since climbed to 24.00 points with the subsequent 90 qualifiers generating another 16.55 points.

A more complete look at this strategy going back 12 seasons is below, and I'll update this again at the end of the season.
Some of you may have seen that this blog's most closely watched pitcher Clayton Kershaw, took his first loss since June at the weekend, although he returned to winning ways last night. Opposing Kershaw since I first mentioned the idea would have made 5.48 points (no prices yet from last night's game):
That 1.28 on 14th September was only the second sub 1.30 price this season (the other being Kershaw's 1.27 on July 8th). There was also only one such price last (2014) season, and that was also a Kershaw game.

Some of you may also have noticed the trend towards Unders on Kershaw's games - from 30 starts this season, the profit would have been 6.40 points. Impressive, and over Kershaw's career, backing Unders would be up 20.15 points (246 games). Of course Kershaw was an unknown as a rookie, so no one on Earth would have actually done this, but since the 2010 season when he did become rather well known, the Kershaw / Unders record has been solid:
A change in personal circumstances has meant that I have had to scale down my blogging, and indeed betting, activities as some of you may have noticed, but I do still try to keep up with some of those blogs on my blog roll, and found this entry from my old friend Geoff:
The King of Bloggers! As the saying goes, Once a King, always a King, but once a Knight is enough.  

1 comment:

Jeffrey Prest said...

I'm on the other side of this coin, backing dogs coming off a win in certain situations.

One thing I've noticed for three years running now, is that it all goes south in the month after the All Star break. Suddenly favourites predominate until around mid-August onwards, when my dogs start winning their share again.

I can only think that by July-August, the bookies have got the measure of the teams when pricing games up, and it takes the back-end of the regular season, when teams gather themselves for one last tilt at a play-off spot (or in readiness for off-sason contract negotiations!) that certain underdogs start over-achieving again.

I just wondered if you had noticed this trend and, if so, if you had any theories as to what might cause it.