Saturday, 2 January 2016

Benford Decade

It's traditional at this time of the year to write some kind on annual wrap-up, but much of what I wrote a year ago is still relevant, in fact now even more so. I wrote last year:

One of the terms economists talk about is 'utility' and it's a fact that the more money you accrue, the less valuable each pound you win becomes. When you need to gross double what you end up with, and what you end up with is worth less than it used to be to you, it's hardly surprising that enthusiasm wanes. There is no viable option to Betfair, and none on the horizon. The golden days are over, and as Mark says, it's very much a question of grinding things out.
The Mark referenced is Mark Iverson who was a prominent blogger and trader from 2007 to 2014. As for enthusiasm waning, and grinding things out, that continues to be true as evidenced perhaps by the lowest number of blog posts since I started this in 2008. Just 162 with four of the last five months in single digits. Nevertheless, the hits keep coming, (average 448 per day over the last three months) although the more content that is out there, the more casual hits there will be. Another sign of waning enthusiasm is that in the first nine years of trading, I was idle for just 291 days. In 2015, the number of idle days was 63, almost exactly double the previous average.

For those interested in Benford numbers - and who isn't? - the numbers after 10 full years are below - with the actual and expected percentage totals:
I had to wait a while for the Championship qualifier for the Lay Last Loser System this season, conceived after a post on the Betfair Forum earlier this season (I can't locate it now) suggested that laying the last team to lose their unbeaten record in each of the lower divisions was a profitable strategy over that teams next few games.

Brighton and Hove Albion finally lost a game on the 19th December, 0:3 at home to Middlesbrough, and have so far failed to win their next three matches. As a Crystal Palace fan, it's an added bonus to see lays of Brighton adding to the profits on this system.
The above results includes the Premier League and continues laying teams until they win again. Prices are based on the Pinnacle Sports prices courtesy of Football Data and adjusted for the lay price based on the over-round.

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