Tuesday, 9 August 2016

Promoting The Draw

From Twitter and @UKBettingPro (now self-reportedly ex-pro) via Peter Nordsted @petenordsted comes this suggestion:

As all three opening day matches involving the three promoted sides have the Draw price well below 4.0, this is a reasonable strategy, although the draw selection has nothing to do with the fact that the home sides are newly promoted. All but two of the games (Manchester City v Sunderland and Chelsea v West Ham United) have the draw with an implied probability greater than 0.25, and as mentioned a few days ago, over the last four EPL seasons:
Backing the draw in the (conveniently exactly) 1,000 matches where the implied probability of the Draw was 0.25 or greater at kick-off would have boosted your account by 49.22 points, and you can all work out the ROI% on that.
The one losing season was not surprising 2013-14, when the Draw hit at just 20.5%, its lowest total in the past ten seasons during which the draw averages 25.8%.
There is a simple additional filter which can be applied to both reduce the volatility and increase the profits.
 UKBettingPro (Jimmy K) writes:
I am attracted to the draw as clearly the more attractive proposition in these games. I know it can be very difficult/boring to back the draw but think about this. If you are consistently on the side of the bet that makes the bookmaker cheer out loud then long term you will not go far wrong.
I really don't understand this idea that backing the draw can be difficult/boring. Where is the problem? The beauty of systems like these is that you place your bet and go on with your life, but the more people that have a problem with backing the draw, the better for me. Serious betting should be boring and emotionless. Do actuaries get excited when they take on new business?


Baz said...

As draws are low scoring can additional profit be made by betting the unders or correct score1 1-1 and/or 0-0 ? Barrie

Stewboss said...

What's the filter?

Have I missed something?