Intense Scrutiny

I mentioned yesterday the "bloggers, web sites, tipsters and betting clubs out there who would have you believe that making a fortune from betting is as easy as opening an account and getting started" and each of these have their reasons for doing this.

In the 'bloggers' category are the likes of 'Big Pairs' who of course vanished without trace once the whole nonsensity of his posts was exposed, The Sultan, who used his blog as a means of selling his "Tennis Trading Manual" and Adam Heathcote whose amazing edge vanished overnight after starting his tipster service. What Big Pairs' motivation was remains unknown, but it would appear to be related to a deep rooted psychological need to be admired. It seems to be a common theme, as my attention was drawn to the following statement from none other than Peter Webb in his latest 'anyone can do it' post:

I realise that I’m pretty unique, in that I can trade confidently at pretty much any level.

Despite the repetitious use of the word 'pretty', it's not a pretty sentence at all. Leaving aside for a moment that there are no degrees of uniqueness - something is either unique or it's not - that's an interesting, if not very modest, statement. 

At 'any level' is of course subjective, but one of the limitations of sports trading versus trading in financial markets, is that the volume is relatively low. One might expect such a Trading Titan to be flexing his muscles in the more lucrative financial markets, rather than piddling around with the 2:10 at Ludlow. Not many Betfair Exchange markets let you risk more than four figures at the best price, so there are really not that many levels at which one could be trading confidently.

I have far too much capital to put to use and therefore my range of opportunities are limited

Peter's interest in preaching the message that 'anyone can do it' is that he has a product to sell, and telling novices that they are unlikely to succeed isn't going to lead to big sales. 

However illogical it is, the idea that everyone can be a winner is far more palatable.

It's also interesting to note that the Premium Charges that Peter is presumably liable for, haven't been mentioned since 2011. It's curious that the impact these charges have on trading aren't discussed, though perhaps warning people that they might win too much and have to pay a charge in the future, isn't good marketing!   

I liked a comment I read today which was:

Intense scrutiny is not the hallmark of the Betfair forum

Unfortunately, intense scrutiny isn't the hallmark for many things related to most 'get-rich-quick' schemes, which is why anyone thinking of turning to trading as anything but a hobby should read articles and books by the likes of Joseph Buchdahl and James Butler before jumping in, and not allowing themselves to be influenced by posts and comments from those with an agenda.

Finally, if anyone has any suggestions as to where Peter might put his excess capital, let me know. The winning entry will receive a free subscription to this blog for 2017!