Friday 9 November 2018

October, Tesla and Totals

I'm back. My three and a half hour scheduled surgery last Friday is now a distant memory, although the scars are there as proof, lest I forget. Still a little banged up, but the surgeon was pleased with the outcome, and my habit of visiting the A&E every couple of months should now be behind me.

It wasn't the best timing though. I'll spare you the details, but on the Thursday my old Mum had a fall, and is now in hospital while my even older  Dad, who can't be left alone, has moved into a care home, at least for a month. Not the best way for them to celebrate their 63rd wedding anniversary.

In other words, there's been a lot going on, and likely will be a lot going on over the next few weeks or months, and sports investing hasn't been a top priority. 

Overall, October was at one time looking likely to be a record monthly loss, but an end of month recovery meant the final amount lost was just 3.8%. I should make it clear that this is all investments, only a small percentage of which are sports investments.

Perspective is always good after a disappointing month, and this was only the second down month since February of 2016, if exclude May 2016's 0.01% loss which was basically a push. 

My Tesla tip is looking good, with a new chairwoman replacing the always interesting, but maverick, Elon Musk this week.

In the more exciting world of sports, the NHL system now has an ROI of 7%, the NBA's East in the West is at 10.1% while the NBA Overs at last season's 215.5 entry point has a 62-59-1 record, basically a push. 

As I cautioned in this post last month, the lines have moved higher and it wasn't a bad time for me to be away from the action. 

In the entire 2017 season, the Totals were 230 or more only 31 times. In 2016 30 times, and on five occasions in 2015. You have to go back to April 2010 for the previous time.

Contrast this with 2018 and 35 games so far have the Totals in this range, and the season is less than a month old!

In American Football, the College Road Dogs are now headed to their eighth consecutive, and 14th of the last 15 seasons in, profit: 
In the NFL, the basic Road Dogs are just behind:

With four of the last five EPL Big 6 matches ending as Draws, the basic Big 6 Draw strategy now has an ROI of 65.6% this season.  

Per Blogger, my most popular all-time post is January's Probability, Difference and The EPL Draw and I'll have some more fascinating insights into the EPL Draw in the next few days, as time and recovery permit of course. 

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