Sunday, 6 January 2019

NFL Wild Card Weekend 2018 Season

This weekend's Wild Card and next week's Divisional rounds are my favourite of the NFL season. Two elimination games a day, and with an average line of 4.8 points, the games are usually competitive. 

Although the format for both weekends is the same, the matches themselves, and thus the markets, are not. The biggest difference is that the Divisional Rounds sees the four home teams all rested after a bye week, their reward for being one of the top two teams in each Conference. It's a huge advantage. 

Since the current playoff format was introduced in the 2002 season, only three wild-card teams have won the three road games needed to reach the Superbowl, and none since 2010.  

As I mentioned earlier in the week, and last year, Unders is the value play on Wild Card Weekend. These games are similar in nature to the Divisional regular season games, and are sometimes between Divisional rivals. The most recent example was yesterday's Houston Texans v Indianapolis Colts match.

The table (left) shows the Unders results in regular season Divisional games since the 2008 season. 

Underdogs are also the play in Wild Card Weekend, as I tweeted yesterday. Road 'dogs by a touchdown or less cover the spread 64% of the time.

There's still one game to go this weekend, but followers will be happy with the results so far. 

I had a cheeky bonus bet on the Los Angeles Chargers to win outright at 2.46. 

My wife seems to have lost interest in her home town team since they relocated to Los Angeles, but her father's interest seems to be rekindled this season. 

What a difference a winning season makes.

Up next, my son's Eagles, looking to cover 6.5 points in Chicago. Well actually, they're probably looking to win, but I'll take the small loss and Under 42 points.

Fly Eagles Fly.

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